4 data points in 4 days: How this week’s US launch will impact the market

JOLTS Job Openings — Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Yesterday’s Job Postings and Labor Turnover survey confirmed that the low-employment, low-fire dynamics in the labor market remained in place through February. Job openings were little changed for the month at 6.9 million. The more accurate figure was 6.882 million, down 358,000 from the upwardly revised January figure of 7.24 million and slightly below the consensus forecast of 6.918 million.

The headline story was hiring. The number of employed people decreased by 498,000 in February to 4.8 million, a decrease of 387,000 compared to the same period last year. The employment rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest since April 2020. This rate is similar to late 2009 and early 2010, when unemployment was around 10%.

As the gap between posted and actually filled positions continues to widen, questions have been raised about how many of the 6.9 million job postings actually reflect short-term hiring intent.

The resignation rate in February was 1.9%, remaining below 2.0% for eight consecutive months. This reflects that employees feel they cannot afford to take chances. The number of layoffs and layoffs was unchanged at 1.7 million, with a notable increase in retail trade (+72,000), partially offset by a decline in non-durable goods manufacturing (-26,000).

Taken together, yesterday’s report showed that the labor market was already cooling before the broader macro data came out this week. Severance pay exceeded employment in February, meaning benefits were reduced on a net basis even though there was no surge in layoffs. This context comes immediately after Friday’s NFP print. Kraken Pro’s related markets: spot and margin BTC/USD, ETH/USD and dollar-related pairs.

ISM Manufacturing PMI – Wednesday April 1, 2026

The first business day of April marks the release of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for March. This is the first major business survey conducted entirely under a post-IEEPA tariff environment. The context is very important.

After the Supreme Court struck down IEEPA-based tariffs in February 2026, the administration replaced them with a 10% global surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act, effective February 24. These changes have created a new cost environment for manufacturers, but they have also increased uncertainty. Section 122 rates could rise to 15%, legal challenges are being pursued in 24 states, and a new Section 301 investigation was launched in March. Manufacturers are exploring all of this simultaneously.

Traders will pay particular attention to the Prices to Pay sub-index, which provides a direct reading of input cost pressures, and the New Orders sub-index, which represents forward demand. If new orders weaken while prices are higher, this signals a stagflationary pressure profile that complicates the Fed’s decision-making and often drives cross-asset volatility.

If manufacturing activity rises unexpectedly, this could be read as evidence that companies are absorbing the tariff shift without significant demand destruction.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The index has spent most of the past 18 months below that level. Related markets: BTC/USD, ETH/USD and macro-sensitive spot pairs.

U.S. Nonfarm Payroll – Friday, April 3, 2026

This is the release traders have been building for all week. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has confirmed that the March 2026 employment situation will be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Context is everything here. The February figure was -92,000, the biggest single-month decline in four months. This follows a 28,000 decline in healthcare employment (attributable to strike activity), a 11,000 decline in information sector jobs, and a continued decline in federal government employment by 10,000 jobs.

The revised edition also reduced the number by 69,000 in December and January combined. The cumulative picture is a labor market under ongoing pressure from multiple directions, including federal downsizing, tariff-related manufacturing headwinds, and sectoral disruption.

The March numbers will be the first full payroll readings since the Section 122 tariff replacement on February 24. Markets will be watching to see if February’s decline is an anomaly in a month due to the health care strike, or the start of a continued deterioration.

Average hourly earnings will also be scrutinized, and in the context of persistent services inflation and a tariff-driven cost environment, wage growth data will directly impact the Fed’s assessment of inflation.

Scenario to watch: If March shows a meaningful recovery into positive territory, the market could interpret this as confirmation that February was noise. If benefits deteriorate further or remain negative, the interest rate path debate will change significantly. Neither outcome is predetermined. Related markets: All major Kraken Pro spot and margin pairs, BTC/USD, ETH/USD and futures.

ISM Service PMI — Friday 3 April 2026

NFP days are also ISM service days. The ISM Services PMI for March is released at 10 a.m. ET on the day the employment report is released. This means that traders face two key data points within the same two hours.

February’s services figure was 56.1, the highest since August 2022, followed by business activity at 59.9 and new orders at 58.6. Services account for about 80% of the U.S. economy, and the price index has maintained an upward trend for 15 consecutive months at 63%. This strong activity and continued price pressures have prompted the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance.

If March services data maintains February’s strength while NFP weakens, traders will be faced with some truly mixed macro signals. That is, a easing labor market and resilient consumer-facing activity. These differences have historically created conditions for interest rate expectations and risky assets to move in a non-linear manner.

Tariff Policy: The Fifth Invisible Data Point of the Week

This week’s data does not stand alone. Every release lands in a legally contested and practically unresolved customs environment. The 10% Section 122 global surcharge, effective February 24, replaced the IEEPA tariff but could face the same legal challenges.

In early March, 24 states filed applications to block it. A new Section 301 investigation was launched in mid-March targeting several key trading partners. Refunds for previously collected IEEPA duties are being processed, but the timeline is uncertain.

The market is reading each macro data point not only as a signal about the economy, but also as an input into whether the tariff environment will tighten, ease, or become more volatile. Traders watching this week’s announcements should view the tariff backdrop as a continued amplification of volatility risks. This is not a low signal reading period for all data points.

Close context

Four high signal releases in four days is an unusually dense period. The combination of JOLTS, ISM Manufacturing, NFP and ISM Services all provide significant throughput for traders in the context of an unresolved tariff regime and a labor market that has seen its first negative monthly print in recent months.

Rather than reacting to single numbers individually, structural thinking about each data point and its interaction with other data points is what differentiates tactical positioning from reactive trading.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past market behavior is not a reliable indicator of future results. Trading involves risk.