Writing predictions is a humble thought experiment. My three bold bets that much year of the tiger It turned out to be very inaccurate. Specifically:
(1) I predicted that China would produce the next hit cryptocurrency game. Instead, the gaming sector as a whole has released many tokens instead of games. But I’m still hopeful. This is mainly due to China’s abundant talent. They only know how to get people addicted to simulation boxes.
(2) I predicted that Chinese tech giants would be very interested in NFTs. The mixed reality is that there has been a steady stream of Chinese tech giants exiting the NFT market as the downturn hit. chinese celebrities Start NFT as a pet project. part local government We have also opened our arms to the acceptance of NFTs to revitalize the creative industry.
(3) I predicted that thousands of DAOs would emerge in the Chinese cryptocurrency community. Instead, we have thousands of airdrop farming studios developing in-depth expertise in anti-Sibil practices and accruing points. The few remaining DAOs are still active, but gone are the days when making a DAO manifesto was considered sexy.
Predictions are difficult because we tend to use the most recent bullish data points to predict roller coaster markets. But that doesn’t mean predicting them is any less fun.
Then let’s start again! Here are my predictions for China, cryptocurrency, and the Year of the Dragon!
1. The Chinese community will invent and export a new Degen narrative.
Cryptocurrency has always been the most overlooked hidden force in the cryptocurrency industry. Chinese ladies. They have single-handedly created terminology, explanations, and even price movements on topics unknown to the Western cryptocurrency Illuminati.
Did you know that the term “KOL,” meaning Key Opinion Leader, originated in China? It’s an obvious Chinglish expression that exists because Chinese people can’t pronounce the word ‘influencer’.
Last year, Bitcoin Ordinals and Bitcoin Layer-2 caught most industry players by surprise. Not only did token prices rise, but a new class of builders and funds began pouring resources into “Make Bitcoin Great Again.”
“BRC20 and Ordi have captivated the Chinese community from the beginning,” the pseudonym said. 0XWizard, a leading KOL in the Bitcoin ecosystem, told me: “The Chinese are more open to new tokens and asset standards as long as there is a wealth effect. Forget technology. The Chinese will imitate anything that will make them money.”
Shortly after Bitcoin’s renaissance, ERC-404 was born, a semi-fungible but completely unofficial token standard. Both share the same origins, namely Chinese developers. Although many Aligners have criticized the lack of approval for such standards, I believe this initial step reflects the Chinese community’s impulse to degenerate at the expense of creating new standards!
But more importantly, these new Chinese builders have learned a thing or two about crafting narratives, be it Bitcoin or Ponzi token standards. We expect to see more original Degen plays from the Chinese community in 2024. Bonus Prediction: Some of the mechanisms will be adopted and accepted by the wider cryptocurrency community.
2. Everything happens on-chain in China too.
Yes, we are going on-chain.
Starting with centralized exchanges, all of the top three exchanges are building their Web3 empires, including wallets, native protocols, and various native dapps.
For example, OKX launched a multichain wallet in 2023. The first non-custodial wallet Supports Bitcoin ordinal numbers. exchange rate Partnership with Polygon We are launching a new layer 2 chain called X1. Whether they like it or not, Chinese startups are building infrastructure and bringing existing users into the on-chain world.
The Quest platform is another favorite of Chinese builders. I’ll go It single-handedly processes more on-chain transactions than all other websites combined. Many of these quests are for airdrop farmers, but they also serve the end goal of rewarding users who actually use the blockchain.
Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, Ethereum development has particularly benefited from Chinese researchers. without any knowledge and Account abstraction space. same team scroll and Tyco We are expanding Ethereum with the Ethereum Foundation. Soul Wallet and Blocto are pushing the smart contract wallet space.
3. The flight of cryptocurrency people from medieval kingdoms
A few things have been stuck in my head since last year. One day I received a Telegram message from a Chinese cryptocurrency founder and friend. I covered his story in 2020. He asked if he could take the story down because he did not want the Chinese government to reveal his identity. It was urgent because the government was involved. Crackdown on several cryptocurrency founders And investors.
The founder “wanted to disappear from the Internet.”
We put the piece down. But that question deeply saddened me because he was part of the first generation of trusted cryptocurrency builders that delivered solid DeFi products. Now he has to erase himself to continue working in our industry. Perhaps “going away” may not be a big sacrifice for companies running small businesses, but for those who want their products to impact the lives of billions of people, “going away” is simply not an option.
Alternative lifestyles also exist. Singapore initially attracted a wealth of cryptocurrency OGs, followed by a handful of builders. 3AC occurred). Hong Kong was fully taken over by local government in 2022. Openly embracing Web3.
Thailand has become a Garden of Eden for young, hipster, and retrograde cryptocurrency idealists. In the case of Dan Wang 2023 NewsletterHe paints a picture of young crypto enthusiasts engaging in deep philosophical topics about nations, geopolitics, wellness, and psychedelics while eating delicious $2 meals.
In Dubai, where I live, cryptocurrency has been in an “up only” trend. Most Chinese exchanges have moved their global headquarters to the UAE. Crypto builders are increasingly looking at Dubai as a potential home (0% taxes!).
Compared to the Corona era when living abroad was a mandatory choice, there are now more cryptocurrency natives. Choose To live abroad. Since my fellow cryptocurrency-based friends are equally mobile, a few months here and there becomes possible.
I predict that 2024 will be the year that these dispersed nomadic communities become larger, more inclusive, and more influential. I hope that new permutations of communities centered around ideology, faith, hobbies, culture, and food will arise. Perhaps the idea of DAOs will come back. Perhaps the next hit cryptocurrency game will come from such a group. Perhaps it’s the friendships people form while traveling.
The ripple effect of a decentralized Chinese community is that it forces us to become more diverse. By physically living in each other’s countries, we further blur the boundaries between East and West.
The more I think through these bets, the more I realize that these predictions are deeply rooted in my optimism about the community. As the cryptocurrency industry transitions into an on-chain bull market, the Chinese community will also accelerate at that pace. After all, in Chinese characters, ‘yong’ is the same character (龙) as ‘long’. As the market lasts longer, so does the Chinese community!
