The Ord Oracle December 5, 2023 | Top Advisor Corner
SPX Monitoring Purpose: Sold at 4550.58 on 11/29/23 = 10.52% profit; Long SPX 10/27/23 at 4117.37.
Profits after December 20, 2022: 26.8%.
Monitoring Purpose Gold: I bought GDX on October 9, 2020 at 40.78.
The bottom window above is the VIX. Most market highs begin to form when the VIX is above 17 (current VIX reading is 13.08), so readings below 17 indicate bullish bullishness. However, rising VIX along with rising SPY is a bearish signal, and both VIX and SPY have been rising over the past few days. Last Friday, SPY closed at a new short-term high and trading volume expanded to its highest level in a week. Most high volume highs have been tested, and when tested on lighter volume, they add to the short-term downtrend. A gap has formed near the 440 range and could be a downside target. We sold the purchased SPX at 4550.58 at the close on 11/29/23 for a profit of 10.52%. Long from SPX 10/27/23 at 4117.37.
The bottom window is SPY, and the next highest window is the TLT/VVIX ratio. In mid-October, SPY made lower lows and the TLT/VVIX ratio made higher lows and showed a bullish divergence (shown in light blue). October 27th marked the low point. SPY is currently making higher highs and the TLT/VVIX ratio is forming a bearish divergence with lower highs. These negative differences can last for several days, if not a week or two. There is evidence that a decline in SPX (SPY) could become a reality in the coming weeks. We note that SPY’s trading volume was relatively high on Friday, with most of the high volume highs being tested, which could be a near-term target for the next high. A large gap has formed in SPY near the 440 range and most large gaps will be filled at some point. SPY’s 440 represents the 38.2% retracement and could be a downside target. The larger trend is upward and the short-term trend is downward from the side. Remain neutral for now.
tim ward,
editor
www.ord-oracle.com. “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” by Timothy Ord published by Timothy Ord, available at: www.Amazon.com.
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