Rocks than stocks | Gonogo Show 041824 | GoNoGo Chart

The S&P500 trend condition has reversed to “NoGo”, reinforced by a purple bar. Alex Cole and Tyler Wood, CMT identify cross-market factors including rising interest rates ($TNX) and a strong U.S. dollar (UUP) that could create headwinds for risk assets. The strong “Go” trend in the Volatility Index ($VIX), still hovering around 20, is also related to the new risk-off nature of this environment.

This week we again take a closer look at GoNoGo Trend® conditions across a variety of commodity markets, including precious and industrial metals ($GOLD, $COPPER), softs ($COCOA, $COFFEE) and energies ($OIL). Relatively outperforms US stocks ($SPY) in “Go” conditions. To express this thesis, Alex and Tyler look at several stocks that could benefit from this trend, including Freeport McMoran (FCX), Harmony Mining Inc (HMY), and Marathon Oil (MRO).

As seen in the GoNoGo Sector RelMap®, market leadership has been replaced by cyclical sectors this week. Energy ($XLE), Industrials ($XLI), and Materials ($XLB) continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index. Interestingly, Communications ($XLC) and Utilities ($XLU) also joined the leadership group. Alex and Tyler take a deeper dive at the industry group level within the Materials Sector (XLB) to see that relative performance is driven by the Aluminum, Non-Ferrous Metals, and Mining groups. In absolute terms, the material was corrected to a neutral yellow bar when the GoNoGo Oscillator® was at zero. Finally, Alex and Tyler review similar risk-off conditions in the cryptocurrency space as Bitcoin ($BTCUSD) reverses into “NoGo” trend conditions and what to watch out for next in terms of trend continuation and downside entry opportunities.

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Rocks than stocks | GoNoGo Show April 18, 2024