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Retail inflation in India eased slightly, hitting an 11-month low of 4.83% on an annualized basis in April 2024, according to government data released on Monday. This figure is slightly lower than the 4.85% recorded last month and almost in line with the Reuters poll forecast of 4.80%. Importantly, it remains within the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) tolerance of 2-6%.

According to Statistics Korea, the grocery basket inflation rate rose from 8.52% in March to 8.7% in April. Then, in April 2024, the inflation rate recorded 0.48%.

Looking at the inflation rate of various raw materials, the inflation rate of vegetables recorded 27.80%, a slight decrease compared to the same period last year, while the inflation rate of grains and legumes recorded 8.63% and 16.84%, respectively. In particular, the oil and light inflation rate decreased by (-)4.24% in April 2024.

Among the top five groups, the inflation rate of ‘clothing/shoes’, ‘housing’, and ‘fuel/lightweight’ decreased compared to the previous month. The inflation rates in the clothing/shoes and housing sectors recorded 2.85% and 2.68%, respectively.

Commenting on the outcome of the first bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of FY25, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das emphasized that inflation is a major challenge. He expressed optimism that inflation appears to be returning to the desired 4% benchmark.

Governor Das highlighted the downward trend in inflation due to favorable base effects, but also acknowledged continued pressure from service prices. Despite a decline in headline inflation to 5.1% in January-February 2024, uncertainty persists due to erratic movements in food prices.

In February 2024, food inflation rose to 7.8% due to the influence of vegetables, eggs, meat, and fish, and fuel costs continued the deflationary trend for six consecutive months. The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and fuel, recorded disinflation and fell to 3.4% in February.

The MPC, at its April 2024 meeting, maintained its inflation forecast for the fiscal year at 4.5%, assuming normal monsoon conditions. But with a hot summer expected, concerns remain about rising prices and supply chain disruptions due to the Red Sea crisis.

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