Deal of the Week: February 12 – February 16, 2024

As I wrote in last week’s recap, I was kicking myself for selling SMCI too early. So it was already on my radar. I always look at Parabolic Rise scans, so I looked at it every night when I ran the scan. I primarily track parabolic runners against short candidates, but sometimes also on long periods, as you can see below. Parabolic short selling is one of my favorite trades, but it is tricky to execute properly. And we’re happy to take profits and execute quickly before they bounce back.

The more I watched SMCI for several days in a row, the more I thought it would go down. A few days ago, when it was over $800, I texted my friend, “I think it’s going to go up to $1,000.” The $1,000 level was reached and surpassed yesterday. that It’s a good number and can often be support or resistance. I was also emboldened by two analysts who gave price targets of 960 and 1040 yesterday and today. I took that as another sign that the situation was absurd and overheated.

So when I saw SMCI widen the gap again. I *tried* to shorten it.. I was able to hit it for $1,064. i had mental freeze I had just over $1,100, but my plan was to hold on until the afternoon. I was ready for it to soar higher, but I felt confident that *they* wouldn’t be able to go any higher without a significant downturn first. well, I almost nailed it on top! My sale took place at 9:36 for $1,064.68 per share. It went as high as $1,077 within minutes of shorting it, but it ran hard after that and never looked back.

I covered half my stock at 10:05 @ 886.76 and the other half at 828.10 after hitting an air pocket in the afternoon.

The trade resulted in a net return of nearly 6 times the initial risk (6R) and helped boost YTD returns up to 26.5%.

And here’s why the rest of the week before was so disappointing. I held a few positions over the weekend and they didn’t do much at all. I also started a few other trades that didn’t pay off much. However, I passed on a HOLO trade that was going to be a big winner.

The next session didn’t run the item, but another Calm After Storm was created.

I remember looking at it that night and thinking it really looked ready to go higher. But when I looked at the company description, it said it was a Chinese company. With so many Chinese stocks making crazy moves and freezes, I decided I didn’t want to risk getting stuck in a HOLO due to a freeze. I think I might have to rethink my approach today. Perhaps I should still take these settings, but in a smaller size.

Another frustration I experienced this week was due to two failed trades on NNOX. I saw it split yesterday morning and commented on it:

Here’s a chart showing all my trades:

Although this was really frustrating I feel good about “fishing in the right pond.” Enforcement needs to be strengthened. With a better/different stop loss placement I was able to continue my initial trade and achieve a profit of around 100% on NNOX. Without these mismanaged and missed transactions my account would probably be up 50-60% YTD.