The duration of the government shutdown is as follows: Asia Morning Briefing

Good morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily roundup of key news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Prediction market bettors are increasingly convinced that a U.S. government shutdown will make history. Polymarket’s contract with Kalshi prices government reopening after 40 days, surpassing the 35-day record set in 2019.

Traders at Polymarket expect a resolution to be most likely around November 15th, while Kalshi’s Duration Market expects it to reach November 11th, with an average of 41.6 days.

Even as much of Washington comes to a halt, with nearly a million federal employees laid off or working without pay, the Federal Reserve remains isolated. The central bank operates independently of congressional appropriations. This means that policy meetings can be held and interest rates adjusted even during the lockdown period.

Polymarket bettors give a 96% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 29 and an 85% chance of another quarter-point cut in December.

The problem is information provision. Delays in jobs, inflation and GDP reports could force the Federal Reserve to make successive cuts based on incomplete data.

It may be a complete coincidence, but the last long-term shutdown in 2018-2019 coincided with the bottom of Bitcoin’s bear market. At this time, BTC fell just above $3,000, but bounced back significantly after the government reopened.

The closure coincided with a record rise in gold, now above $4,200 an ounce, and a $20 billion cryptocurrency leverage flush that reset derivatives markets.

market movements

Bitcoin: Bitcoin is trading above $108,000 as traders unwind weekend gains and risk sentiment weakens, with traders down 1.8% as macro uncertainty reemerges and ETF inflows weighing on digital assets cool.

ETH: Ethereum is retesting the $4,100 resistance, with treasury firms SharpLink and BitMine increasing their accumulation, buying a total of $278 million of ETH over the past week to expand their holdings amid market consolidation.

gold: Gold fell 5.5% to $4,121.50 and silver fell 7.5% to $48.37, the steepest one-day decline in years. This is because traders took profits after the parabolic rally. However, analysts say both metals are still maintaining strong long-term upward trends.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 index rose a day after exports showed a 4.2% increase in September compared to the same period last year. This followed a four-month decline as rising exports to Asia offset weaker demand in the United States and imports rose 3.3%, beating expectations.

Elsewhere in Cryptocurrency

• Prediction markets are booming as trading volume surpasses 2024 election (Bloomberg)
• Tether users surpass 500 million as stablecoin supply approaches $182 billion (The Block)
• Galaxy stock price soars due to 140% increase in trading volume in the 3rd quarter (decryption)