JP Morgan demands $240,000 in Bitcoin despite recent sell-off
Bitcoin is still recovering from its recent decline, but JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) says its long-term direction is still higher.
In its latest update, the bank expects: Bitcoin (BTC) could eventually reach around $240,000.It fell from a high of around $126,000 in early October to a low of around $80,000 in November, and was most recently trading around $86,000.
These optimistic forecasts are premised on a fundamental change in market dynamics.
JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin is increasingly being shaped by the same macroeconomic conditions that affect other risk assets.
Analysts say interest rates, global liquidity and broader economic signals are now more important than Bitcoin’s familiar four-year halving cycle.
To explain the change, the bank explained how the market structure had changed.
- Cryptocurrencies now behave more like macro assets rather than halving-centric assets.
- Institutional liquidity is replacing retail speculation as the primary driver.
- Early-stage VC-style funding rounds are gone.
- Retail participation continues to decline.
- Institutions now account for most of the market depth.
- Imbalanced liquidity still makes short-term fluctuations more steep.
JPMorgan says these structural trends support the idea that Bitcoin is becoming a long-term growth asset rather than a cyclical asset.
At the bank’s recent event, one speaker went further and suggested that BTC “could potentially reach $240,000 in the long term,” framing the asset as one that investors could access over a multi-year period.
To complement the research, JP Morgan has launched a new structured product: iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (NASDAQ: IBIT). These notes provide investors with Bitcoin exposure through predefined terms that determine returns and risks, including a principal protection mechanism.
Banks divide the mechanisms of banknotes into clear outcomes.
- Early repayment: If the IBIT ETF meets pre-set levels by the end of 2026, its bonds could be called early, resulting in a return of at least 16%.
- Extension period: If the goal is not met by 2026, the memo will continue until 2028.
- Upside Potential: If IBIT exceeds JPMorgan’s 2028 target, investors can earn 1.5 times their principal amount without any cap.
- Disadvantage Protection: At maturity, the principal is protected unless IBIT falls by more than approximately 30%. If this barrier is breached, the loss of principal will match the rate of decline of the ETF, with the potential for total losses in a severe downturn.
The filing states that the product does not guarantee principal and is subject to risks directly related to the performance of the IBIT.
JPMorgan’s outlook and product launch come as the cryptocurrency sector faces broader debates over institutional influence, index eligibility and how regulators should deal with companies with heavy Bitcoin exposure.
Nonetheless, despite these uncertainties, the bank maintains that Bitcoin’s evolution into a macro asset class is well underway.
