The stock market in 2026 looks very similar to the two-pronged market in 2025.
Trader Peter Tuchman wears “2026” glasses as traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange at the opening bell on December 31, 2025.
Timothy A. Clary | Afp | getty images
The new year begins with the stock market looking just as divided as last year.
The first trading day of 2026 began on Friday, and stock markets were as divided as they have been in recent months. The S&P 500 began an uptrend, fueled by semiconductors, but then began a decline and began to decline. The comprehensive market index fell 0.1% last time.
Looking inside the S&P 500, we see the major sectors. Five sectors rose in the overall market index, with industrials, energy, and utilities each up more than 1%. Six industries showed declines, led by consumer discretionary goods and communications services.
Day trading is a continuation of a strong theme in recent months. The bull market rally of the past three years has been defined by artificial intelligence, but traders, nervous tech stocks say an uphill climb will be more difficult in 2026, are starting to pivot to a different group.
In fact, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is known to have a high proportion of technology companies, ended last year with a loss for two consecutive months.
Many strategists have called for an expansion in the stock market, with companies more sensitive to economic cycles taking on the role of technology to lead the market in 2026. They saw this as a healthy development to extend the bull market.
However, this could mean that it will be more difficult for the overall index to rise. Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to rise about 11% in 2026, according to the 2026 CNBC Market Strategists Survey. Nonetheless, it is a significant gain that falls short of the last three indexes.
Other people on the street are more nervous. On Wednesday, Bank of America strategist Savita Subramanian noted that the S&P 500 is expensive. This means “risk is high for the 2026 index.” Strategists’ year-end target of 7,100 for the S&P 500 is among the lowest among those surveyed.
Elsewhere, Adam Parker, founder of Trivariate Research, appeared on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” last week and said the level of optimism on the street makes him anxious about 2026.
“I think the consensus is pretty optimistic,” Parker said. “You’re betting on strong revenue growth, and I don’t know if that’s likely.”
Within technology trading, chip stocks were the only bright spot. As of midday trading, nvidia It was the only name among the Magnificent Seven to rise 1.5%. that VanEck Semiconductor ETF It rose almost 3%. micron While it rose by more than 7%, AMD It rose by more than 3%.
