If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, a global recession is inevitable.
Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel Advisors LLC, attends the Semafor Global Economic Summit during the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, DC, USA, Tuesday, April 14, 2026.
Aaron Schwarz | Bloomberg | getty images
Citadel CEO Ken Griffin said Tuesday that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for much longer, the global economy will head into a recession.
“Suppose the strait were to close for the next six to 12 months, the world would fall into a recession,” Griffin said on stage at the Semaphore World Economic Conference in Washington, D.C. “There is no way to avoid that.”
As a result, the world will see a major shift to alternative fuel sources, including wind, solar and nuclear, he added. Certainly, the hedge fund leader believes the outcome of the war would have been worse if the United States had postponed any attack until Iran’s military grew.
Stocks have rebounded to levels before the first U.S. attack on Iran in February, but optimism among investors hinges on the duration of the Middle East war. Many do not expect any risk of escalating tensions between the two countries to be reflected in the markets.
The global economy, especially in Asia, remains vulnerable to a surge in oil prices, which have risen to around $100 per barrel. This is off the war highs but still well above pre-war levels, just below $70 a barrel.
