waiting for approval Spot Bitcoin ETF With Opening Day 2024 reaching fever pitch levels, the feverish discourse on the topic has now been resolved by one question: Already priced?
Some people in the cryptocurrency industry think the answer is yes. It has continued to post gains for over two months, fueled almost entirely by BTC. excitement There is news that Bitcoin ETF approval is imminent. With cryptocurrency prices now nearly doubling in October, how much more juice can there be left to squeeze?
However, many ardent Bitcoin supporters emphasize that the event has not been priced. That means BTC is poised to rise even further. if and when A Bitcoin ETF is expected to be approved in the coming weeks.
A Bitcoin ETF will finally give traditional retail investors an easy way to gain exposure to BTC without the need for a cryptocurrency exchange or wallet. However, the SEC has rejected all proposals for such products over the past decade, citing Bitcoin’s potential for market manipulation as the main reason. But that was then, and this is BlackRock. And the fact that Wall Street giants have entered the Bitcoin ETF race means it’s finally going to happen, most analysts say.
My strategy is to understand that there are no new large positions as the ETF has been priced in over the past few months.
A few low leverage trades on the most powerful altcoins and a few small cap spot holdings.
Preparing for angel investment and new product launches
For now, let me put it simply…
— Rager (@Rager) January 3, 2024
All signs point in the direction of approval, which could lead to a wave of new capital entering the market. This is why some traders and analysts are very optimistic and expect an almost immediate impact on the BTC price following the SEC’s approval.
These predictions tend to focus on the belief that a significant portion of the market has failed to process the significance of the Bitcoin ETF approval, even taking into account the recent rally. Change Bitcoin Forever By integrating digital assets into the global economy
“Given how much the event has been priced in, there are clearly funds left waiting for actual confirmation,” said strategist Joel Kruger. LMAX Groupsaid decryption.
Kruger predicts that what analysts predict will happen within a day or two of the approval of the first Bitcoin ETF. during next week—BTC price is likely to rise by 10%. At that point, he says, there could be a brief period of consolidation and correction before the world’s leading cryptocurrency gets pumped again. According to the strategist, BTC could break the all-time high of $69,000 that it briefly touched in late 2021 as early as the spring.
James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, agrees that BTC is poised to continue its winning streak with the approval of a Bitcoin ETF.
“We don’t think it’s fully priced for a number of reasons,” he said. decryption.
Butterfill points to nearly $14 trillion worth of U.S. assets that would have the opportunity to be exposed to Bitcoin if a spot Bitcoin ETF were approved. While only a small portion of that market is likely to choose it, it is nonetheless difficult to overstate the importance of the fact that Bitcoin could soon have theoretical interconnectivity with the majority of the U.S. economy.
Additionally, the analyst observed that inflows into existing Bitcoin investment products in the past quarter primarily came from Europe. This suggests that many US investors are waiting for a US-based ETF to launch and jump into Bitcoin.
However, other analysts have been hesitant to paint a clearly rosy picture of the price impact of Bitcoin ETFs.
Vetle Lunde, senior analyst at K33 Research, wrote: report On Wednesday, he said there was a 75% chance that a Bitcoin ETF would be approved. “Sell the news” Event – refers to an event in which the price of BTC falls due to a flood of investors selling the cryptocurrency at the peak of the mid-term hype.
“BTC’s continued upward momentum over the past three months, with derivatives pushing massive premiums, all suggests that traders are getting significant exposure ahead of the verdict,” Lunde said.
However, the analyst noted that the event could end up being a net benefit for BTC if ETF inflows are large enough to offset “news selling” outflows. According to Lunde’s estimates, Bitcoin ETFs would need to attract $2.3 billion in new inflows in January alone to stem the decline in the asset’s price. That new capital must be truly new. It does not include moving funds from a Bitcoin futures ETF to a newly minted spot Bitcoin ETF.
Lunde puts the odds of that outcome at 20%.—It’s certainly not impossible, but it’s not particularly likely either. John Palmer, president of spot cryptocurrency clearing house Cboe Digital, previously said: decryption He said that the spot Bitcoin ETF will achieve surprising results in its first year, attracting $10 to $15 billion worth of investments by the end of 2024.
