Here’s how spot Bitcoin ETF issuers predict future results:

According to three related sources, prospective spot bitcoin ETF issuers could begin trading as early as next week if the Securities and Exchange Commission approves the necessary documents.

But first, issuers and exchanges must prepare final document submissions.

Over the next three business days, Grayscale Investments is working to file a revised Form 19b-4, sources said. This is necessary as the old documents were submitted months ago and need to be refreshed, the sources said. This will likely first appear in the rulemaking section of the NYSE website.

According to other sources, prospective spot Bitcoin ETF issuers must file a final S-1 form, specify fees, name authorized participants, and remove items in parentheses.

In order for a spot Bitcoin ETF to become active, the SEC must approve a pending Form 19b-4 for each fund, which will likely appear first on the SEC website. The S-1 form must also be made valid. Approvals on separate forms do not necessarily occur at the same time.

An official from a promising issuer said, “Trading will begin the morning after both facts are confirmed.”

Trading may begin as early as next week.

One source said 19b-4 approval would probably come in the mid to late next week and trading could begin as early as Thursday or Friday of next week. Another source noted that there is still uncertainty, considering that some spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock, do not have deadlines until March.

Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst Mentioned in X “The SEC will issue its final opinion as we speak and the issuer will soon file its final 19b-4 and S-1. So this means we are (clearly) as close to ‘done’ as we have been, but without formal approval. As far as I know.”

“We do not comment on individual filings,” an SEC spokesperson told The Block in an emailed response to questions. “Broadly speaking, once the Commission declares a registration statement effective, this will be reflected in EDGAR. All Commission 19b-4 orders will be posted on our website and then published in the Federal Register.”

Progress toward a spot Bitcoin ETF

Over the past two days, several prospective spot Bitcoin ETF issuers have filed Form 8-A, which is another step in this process. These include Fidelity, Grayscale, Ark Investments, Valkyrie and VanEck and t.A move refers to a registration that allows the issuer to trade on an exchange after the product has been approved.

Over the past several months, issuers have been working closely with the SEC to try to resolve any remaining issues. Three major issues were addressed, including: Questions include what redemption model to use, the names of approved participants, and how to manage hard forks and airdrops.

For example, BlackRock named Jane Street Capital and JP Morgan Securities as approved participants last week. Van alkyrie named Jane Street Capital and Cantor Fitzgerald. Goldman Sachs is also known to want to participate.

Some uncertainty remains

“Institutions may further delay the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF,” said James Angel, an associate professor at Georgetown University.

“The SEC has a number of ways to slow things down even further,” Angel said. “They can basically go to the issuer and say ‘no’ if they want an answer today. What we want to do is withdraw the application and resubmit it to restart the clock. Here’s what we want.”

“Although there is a deadline, the SEC has ample ability to force registrants to voluntarily agree to a delay,” Angel said, adding, “Issuers could go to court, but that could take months.”

“Anything can happen,” he added.

(Includes additional reporting assistance from Sarah Wynn.)

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