Ahead of the market: 10 things that will determine D-Street action on Monday
Nifty 50 ended the day up 0.27% at 23,813, while BSE Sensex closed at 78,699, adding 0.29%. Both benchmarks are up about 1% this week after falling 5% last week. It was the highest figure in 30 months as prospects for fewer interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2025 made emerging markets less attractive.
Here’s how analysts analyze the pulse of the market.
“Technically, Nifty crossed the 200-day simple moving average (200-DSMA) on the daily chart but failed to stay above it, forming a Doji candle. On the weekly chart, the index formed an internal bar candle pattern, which is 23,500-23,540. It indicates that there is strong demand near the zone, which will act as an immediate hurdle for the Nifty, and a sustained rise above this level will push the index further. On the downside, Nifty is expected to consolidate between 23,500 and 23,900, which will define the next move,” said Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates.
“The 23,900-24,000 zone, bolstered by heavy call writing, poses a significant hurdle,” said Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities. “Meanwhile, 200-DEMA and the pivotal 23,700-23,600 band, bolstered by notable put writing, form a solid base. For the bulls, a break above 24,000 could trigger this, but until such a break materializes. The ‘buy on the dip’ strategy remains cautious, while a break below 23,500 could amplify the bearish momentum and push the index towards 23,150, with strong write-offs providing further support.”
That said, let’s take a look at some key indicators that suggest action on Monday.
US market:
Wall Street’s holiday cheer ended abruptly on Friday, with all three major benchmarks closing lower in a widespread sell-off that also affected technology and growth stocks that had driven the market higher during the shortened trading week. The decline ended the Dow Jones industrials. After dropping 10 straight games, Average’s five-game winning streak is its worst losing streak since 1974.
European Stocks:
Europe’s STOXX 600 index posted its first weekly gain in three weeks on Friday, led by gains in healthcare and financial stocks, ending a holiday-shortened week.
The pan-European benchmark rose 0.7%, its highest in a week and up about 1% after a week in which trading volumes were lower than average and several markets were closed for the period.
Most stock exchanges in the region also closed, with Germany’s DAX up 0.7%, France’s CAC 40 up 1% and Britain’s FTSE 100 up 0.2%.
Technical view:
Satish Chandra Aluri of Lemonn Markets Desk said the benchmark index failed to take advantage of the gap-up opening while remaining positive on a potential bullish signal and closing above the key 23,800 level.
“We continue to believe that the market will enter a new macro regime in 2025 and heightened uncertainty about inflation and growth will push longer-term interest rates higher in the U.S. Earnings season, along with budget expectations and Trump’s inauguration, will be the next trigger. “The market direction will change in the new year,” he said.
Stocks with a bullish bias:
Momentum indicator Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bullish trading in Ajanta Pharma, Jyothy Labs, Sapphire Foods, Home First Finance, Avenue Supermart and Eicher Motors stores.
MACD is known to indicate a trend reversal in a traded security or index. When the MACD crosses above the signal line, it sends a bullish signal, indicating that the price of the security may rise and vice versa.
Stocks that signal upcoming weakness:
MACD showed signs of weakness on the counters BLS International Services, Varroc Engineering, Lemon Tree Hotels, Aptus Value Housing Finance, AstraZeneca and Raymond. A bearish crossover in the MACD of this counter indicates that it has just begun its downward journey.
The most active stocks by value:
Amber Enterprises (Rs 138.1 billion), Tata Motors (Rs 119.8 billion), Finolex Industries (Rs 112.3 billion), SBI (Rs 85.8 billion), RIL (Rs 85.6 billion), ITC (Rs 78 billion) and Infosys (Rs 75.2 billion) ) crore) has been one of the most active stocks by value on the NSE. Terminology. The higher activity of a counter in terms of value can help identify which counters have the highest turnover for the day.
The most active stocks by trading volume:
Vodafone Idea (Shares traded: KRW 18.1 billion), Finolex Industries (Shares traded: KRW 4.3 billion), YES Bank (Shares traded: KRW 4.3 billion), NMDC (Shares traded: KRW 3.3 billion), Easy Trip Planners (Shares traded: KRW 3.3 billion) : 2.9 billion), RBL Bank (shares traded: 2.2 billion), Suzlon Energy (equity trading volume: 2 crore) were among the most traded stocks in the NSE session. It was one.
Stocks we are interested in buying:
Shares of Caplin Point, Jubilant Food and Oberoi Realty hit new 52-week highs, showing strong buying interest from market participants, indicating bullish sentiment.
Stocks under selling pressure:
Shares of P&G, Astral, Godrej Consumer Products and Motherson Sumi Wiring hit 52-week lows, signaling a decline.
Sentiment Meter Bear:
Overall, market breadth favored the bears, with 1,864 stocks closing in the green and 2,108 in the red.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions provided by experts are their own and do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)
