Analysts say Bitcoin call options cluster above $60,000, indicating post-halving strength.
According to one analyst, Bitcoin options are showing strength following the halving, as evidenced by strike positioning and put-call ratios for late June expiration.
“The June expiration date is a good gauge of halving sentiment and our charts show much higher upside potential. The put-call ratio is significantly lower at 0.28 in June compared to 0.55 in March, and the strike positioning is also higher.” Deribit Chief Commercial Officer Luuk Strijers told The Block.
A put-call ratio below 1 indicates bullish sentiment and indicates more interest in potential upside (calls). In contrast, a put-call ratio greater than 1 generally suggests bearish sentiment, indicating more interest in downside protection (puts).
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Call options are concentrated at strike prices above $65,000 in June, which expire at the end of the month after the halving. Image: Deribit.
Strijers highlighted Deribit data for an expiration at the end of June, following the expected Bitcoin halving event in April. This could see the market experiencing supply-side pressure due to reduced BTC rewards to miners. For the June 28 expiration, the Deribit chart shows a cluster of call options for strike prices ranging from $60,000 to $75,000.
The concentration of Bitcoin calls above the $60,000 strike price means that a significant percentage of market participants are either particularly interested or expect the Bitcoin price to rise above this level.
For the upcoming March quarterly and month-end expirations, Strijers observed a concentration of call options with a strike price of $60,000. But he suggested that slightly different motivations were at play in this case. “In March, some traders may be speculating that volatility will rise as we get closer to the halving,” he said.
Bitcoin put call skew indicates optimistic expectations.
Strijers said call options are relatively overbought for expirations that occur around Bitcoin’s expected April halving. “Overbought” means there has been increased demand for call options compared to puts this month.
“We are seeing a clear shift in put call skewness following the March expiration, meaning calls are relatively overbought after the halving, indicating optimistic expectations,” Strijers said.
Put call skew from February to December 2024. Image: Deribit.
Upcoming Bitcoin Halving Event
According to The Block’s pricing page, Bitcoin was trading at $51,023 at 3:07 PM ET. The GM 30 index, which represents the top 30 cryptocurrencies, fell 2.36% to 111.35 over the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin is down more than 1% in the last 24 hours. Image: Block.
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