Are major commodities being separated from stocks? | Mish’s Market Hours
After a long weekend, there were a few surprises in market action on January 16th.
The bullish trend, or uptrend, has been the dollar and – surprisingly to some – various commodities. Bearish trends or losers were foreign currencies, long-term bonds and (not shown in chart) US stock indices.
To be fair, there were a lot of products that didn’t perform well. Natural gas, which had shown remarkable gains, fell sharply, as did gold, wheat, soybean oil, and aluminum.
The two commodities we most track for signs of an inflation resurgence performed well.
Why do we focus on the silver to gold ratio and sugar futures? As mentioned last weekend, the trading range for silver futures has become tighter. “If the recent support of $22.50 per ounce holds, while it is up from its lowest since October, this could mean this is the week we start to see the light of day for this metal.” Today is a silver gift a day inside Gold fell about $19.00 to $2,032.
Silver held on to $23.00 and basic support levels. All things considered, gold also maintained short-term support at $2029. But we are yet to see silver outperform gold, so we are watching.
Sugar added 22 cents a pound to close at 22.52. Coffee and cocoa also rallied. So it was a big day for Soft.
Going back to the notion that today may be the beginning of decoupling, we need to see more. But we are paying attention.
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Mish presents a three-part market outlook in a video from CMC Markets. First, in just four and a half minutes, Mish provides a thorough outlook on which areas to invest in in 2024. She then examines whether the S&P 500 can continue to rebound, and finally, whether 2024 could be the year of heavy metals.
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Mish covers oil, gold, natural gas, silver, and sugar and teaches you how to use charts to determine short-term trading strategies in this video from CMC Markets.
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Coming soon:
January 17: StockCharts TV, January Calendar Range
January 22nd: Your Daily 5Stock Chart TV
January 24: Yahoo! Jae Won
January 25: live coaching
weekly: Business-first AM, CMC market
- S&P 500 (Spy): 480 all-time high, 460 base support.
- Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 pivotal, 180 major support.
- Dow (HE): You should get 370.
- NASDAQ (QQQ): 408 is now the most important number supporting 405.
- Local Bank (KRE): I failed 50 times, but I haven’t failed too many times now.
- Semiconductor (SMH): Winner again.
- Transportation (IYT): You must have 250.
- Biotechnology (IBB): 135 Pivotal support.
- Sleeve (XRT): To maintain a bullish stance, we need to hold on to 65 and recover above 70.00.
Misch Schneider
MarketGauge.com
Director of Trading Research and Education