Bernstein repeatedly emphasized that Bitcoin could reach $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump is elected president.

adminOctober 9, 2024

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein reiterated their prediction that the price of Bitcoin could hit a new all-time high in the $80,000-$90,000 range if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election next month. The analysis comes as the odds are strongest for the former president since Vice President Kamala Harris accepted the Democratic Party’s nomination.

Trump outlined his policies this year, including accepting cryptocurrencies in campaign donations, making the U.S. a Bitcoin mining ‘powerhouse’, appointing a cryptocurrency-friendly SEC chairman, and establishing a national strategic Bitcoin reserve. has established itself as a candidate for cryptocurrency support.

By contrast, Harris has not mentioned cryptocurrencies in any speeches or policy statements until recently, and last month she said she would encourage cryptocurrency businesses while protecting consumers, said the U.S. should become “dominant” in blockchain, and that digital assets should be “dominant” in cryptocurrencies. We made extensive comments on the need to encourage business. It’s part of her “opportunity economy” vision.

Bernstein analysts believe Bitcoin will perform well in the long term regardless of the outcome amid low interest rates, ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits, and unprecedented debt levels, but the short-term reaction to the election could be significant.

“A Trump victory would be incrementally positive for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market.” Gautam Chhugani, Mahika Sapra and Sanskar Chindalia wrote in a note to customers on Wednesday. “In a Trump victory scenario, we expect Bitcoin to surpass its previous high of $74,000 and reach new highs ($80,000-$90,000). If Harris wins, we believe it could test new lows in the $40Ks range in the near term (not previously tested in recent corrections).”

Meanwhile, analysts expect Bitcoin to continue to react to election odds, becoming more positive as Trump’s chances of winning increase. Conversely, if the race continues to be “too close to call,” it is expected to be scope-limited until the November 5 election.

However, their views on altcoins are different. Chhugani, Sapra and Chindalia expect crypto assets like ETH and SOL to remain range-bound until the elections. Analysts predicted that other cryptocurrencies will take a decisive turn after the election when “there will be more clarity between the SEC Chairman and the hierarchy of regulatory aides within the White House as developments in blockchain become more connected to the regulatory environment.”

Polymarket Is Trump biased?

Polymarket is the world’s most liquid election prediction platform, with over $1.5 billion in bets on the U.S. presidential election alone, approximately $311 million on the popular vote winner, and a total of $60 million across seven swing states. Hold your bets, analysts say. famous.

Because Polymarket is a blockchain-based platform and Trump has taken an explicitly cryptocurrency-friendly stance, some argue that the decentralized global marketplace has an inherent bias against the Republican candidate. However, Bernstein analysts argued that users are more likely to bet real money on the odds rather than actually reflecting their own biases. It added that the platform’s significant liquidity was strong enough to indicate bias or market manipulation attempts.

“This was clear in that Harris’s odds were ahead of Trump’s, excluding Trump’s recent margin. Second, cryptocurrency investors who have already bought cryptocurrencies are more likely to buy Harris as a hedge,” they said. “We therefore expect more demand for Harris from cryptocurrency investors. Additionally, Polymarket will have bettors other than cryptocurrency investors for its trading volume.”

Trump’s differing views on Polymarket

The analyst noted that Harris led Trump by two levels in the polls. First, when she was announced as the Democratic nominee, it lasted for several weeks until the market was “too close to call.” Second, following Harris’ positive debate results on September 10th, Polymarket found her leading Trump by 6%, bringing it back to 50/50.

But following a weekend rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, where Trump narrowly survived an assassination attempt last July, the Polymarket odds on Monday were suddenly mixed, with Trump at one point ahead of Harris by 8 points.

The divergence came after tech billionaire Elon Musk, who attended Butler’s rally in support of Trump, said PolyMarket had “real money at stake” and was “more accurate than opinion polls.”

But the latest national polling averages continue to make it a “neck race,” with numbers giving Harris a 3 percent lead within the margin of error, analysts said. “Nate Silver’s Bayesian model, which uses recent polls as input to determine trends, now gives Harris a 3% lead, but his comments continue to suggest a ‘close race,’” they added. Yes.

Chhugani, Sapra and Chindalia gave Hillary Clinton a 5% poll lead at the same stage in the 2016 election and Joe Biden in the 2020 election. It pointed out that it had a 3% lead in the 2018 election. They said Trump would win because polls have historically underestimated him.

Trump currently leads Harris by 7% in the polls. The probability of winning the US presidential election is 53.2% compared to 46.2%. Meanwhile, in the platform’s swing state markets of Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, Trump holds a clear lead of more than 20% each, analysts noted. In Pennsylvania, Trump held a 9% lead until the Butler rally, while Harris continues to lead, albeit by narrow margins, in Wisconsin (4%) and Michigan (6%).

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.

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adminOctober 9, 2024