Bloomberg analysts revised their odds of ETH ETF approval to 75% amid rumors of an SEC reversal.
According to sources, the SEC has asked applicants for a spot Ethereum ETF to update their 19-b4 filings, which has increased optimism about potential approval.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas said May 20 that the SEC could reverse its expected stance and choose not to reject pending applications. He cited ETF Store President Nate Geraci, who argued that the SEC could approve the 19-b4 exchange listing rule while delaying a decision on the S-1 registration statement.
James Seyffart added that he and Balchunas have heard from several sources and that some new filings are expected to come out in the coming days.
FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terret said her source also said: Confirmed The SEC directed issuers to update their 19b-4 filings. She previously said the issue was “evolving in real time.”
Bloomberg probability is 75%
Balchunas and Seyffart updated their odds of approval for a spot Ethereum ETF to 75%, up from their most recent forecast of 25% to 30%.
Balchunas also noted that the issue has become “an increasingly political issue,” a topic that has been heavily discussed in the past week.
On May 15, Coinbase Research analyst David Han suggested that the US election year could influence the SEC’s decision. At the time, Balchunas called Han’s comments a “risk-free PR move” and said his predictions posed a greater risk to his reputation.
Unbanked founder Ryan Sean Adams, who agreed at the time of the Coinbase report that politics could play a role in the approval, supported Balchunas’ comments today. He answered:
“This is what political pressure can do during an election.”
Some commentators remain pessimistic. Ron Hammond, director of government relations at the Blockchain Association, said May 20 that many people believe the SEC will reject applications based on political indicators and comments from issuers.
The first deadline is approaching.
Deadline is fast approaching. The SEC must decide on VanEck’s proposal for a spot ETH ETF on May 23, but may decide on multiple applications at the same time.
Prediction market Polymarket now suggests a 10% chance that a spot Ethereum ETF could be approved by the end of May, based on cryptocurrency-based bets.
The latest development coincides with ETH’s sharp price rise. Ethereum price rose 20% in 24 hours, with most of the increase occurring within 2 hours of Balchunas announcement. The cryptocurrency market rose 6.7% in 24 hours, while Bitcoin rose 5.2%.
Analysts at Bloomberg Post Revise Odds of ETH ETF Approval to 75% Amid Rumors of SEC Flip appeared first on CryptoSlate
