Can December surpass November’s record Bitcoin price increase?

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Bitcoin is coming off one of the most notable months in its history, surging above $30,000 in November, signaling a renewed bullish sentiment in the market. Looking ahead to December and beyond, investors want to understand whether Bitcoin’s momentum can continue into 2025. Let’s break down what’s happening and what it means, with macroeconomic conditions, historical trends, and on-chain data favoring Bitcoin. future.

Record performance in November

November 2024 was not just a month for Bitcoin. It was historic. The price of Bitcoin rose from about $67,000 to nearly $100,000, up about 50% from peak to trough, making it the best-performing month ever in terms of dollar growth. The rally rewarded long-term holders who endured months of consolidation following Bitcoin’s all-time high of $74,000 earlier this year.

*Figure 1: Bitcoin rose above $30,000 in November.*

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Historically, the fourth quarter is Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with November often being a standout month. December, which has performed well in past up cycles, presents a promising outlook. However, as with any rally, some short-term cooling can be expected.

*Figure 2: The fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin’s best performing period.*

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The role of the dollar and global liquidity

Interestingly, Bitcoin’s rise occurred against the backdrop of a strengthening US Dollar Strength Index (DXY), a scenario that typically underperforms Bitcoin. Historically, Bitcoin and DXY have had an inverse relationship. In other words, when the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin weakens and vice versa.

*Figure 3: Bitcoin rises despite USD strength.*

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Likewise, another key indicator, global M2 money supply, has also recently seen a slight contraction. Bitcoin has historically had a positive correlation with global liquidity. Therefore, current performance does not meet expectations. If liquidity conditions improve in the coming months, this could act as a strong tailwind for the Bitcoin price.

*Figure 4: Global M2 YoY chart showing liquidity contraction.*

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Similarities to Past Bull Cycles

Bitcoin’s current trajectory is strikingly similar to past bull markets, particularly the 2016-2017 cycle. The cycle began with a gradual price rise before breaking a key resistance level and entering the exponential growth phase.

In 2017, the price of Bitcoin saw a parabolic rally, breaking away from key technical levels around $1,000 and peaking at $20,000, a 20-fold increase. Likewise, the 2020-2021 cycle saw Bitcoin rise from $20,000 to nearly $70,000 after crossing a critical YoY performance threshold.

*Figure 5: Current BTC performance paralleling price before breaking previous major resistance level.*

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If Bitcoin can decisively break above the key $100,000 resistance level from this historic level, we could witness a repeat of the explosive price action as BTC enters an exponential bullish price phase.

Institutional adoption and accumulation

A key factor underpinning Bitcoin’s strength is the continued accumulation of institutions. Bitcoin ETFs are adding billions of dollars worth of BTC to their holdings, and firms like MicroStrategy are doubling down on their Bitcoin strategies, now holding nearly 400,000 BTC. Despite BTC hitting new all-time highs, the ‘smart money’ is struggling to accumulate as much as possible to keep up.

*Figure 6: Institutions do not wait for retracements to accumulate BTC.*

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This institutional demand shows that Bitcoin is gaining confidence as a long-term store of value even in unstable market conditions. This build-up also reduces available supply, creating upward price pressure as demand increases.

conclusion

December has historically been a strong month for Bitcoin, but near-term volatility could temper the gains as the market digests November’s sharp rally. Although anything is possible considering the aggressive accumulation we are seeing from institutional players.

However, the long-term outlook is very optimistic. The obvious level to watch is the next major milestone of $100,000, which if breached could pave the way for an even bigger rally in 2025. Bitcoin is entering one of its most exciting phases yet, and the stars appear to be aligning on both the macroeconomic and technological fronts. , on-chain indicators.

To learn more about this topic, check out our recent YouTube video here. Biggest Bitcoin Month in History – So what happens next?