Can Nifty 50 touch 28,000 this year? Here’s what Bernstein said:
Overview: As market conditions change, let us see if Nifty will reach 28,000. Global brokerage Bernstein has downgraded its 2026 outlook for the Indian market to ‘neutral’, expecting the Nifty index to rise 8% and target 28,100. In this article, we will look at the factors that influence this goal.
The Indian stock market has experienced a significant rally over the past few months and the Nifty 50 has recently experienced significant consolidation. As global and domestic market conditions continue to develop, investors and traders are wondering whether Nifty 50 will reach 28,000 this year.
The market, which had been strong in recent years, has shown signs of easing, with analyst Bernstein predicting more modest growth. The chances of Nifty reaching 28,000 will depend on a combination of economic factors, corporate earnings and government policies in the coming months.
Bernstein’s Views on Nifty
Global brokerage Bernstein downgraded the Indian market outlook for 2026 to ‘neutral’, predicting the Nifty index to rise only 8% and setting the target at 28,100. Venugopal Garre, head of India research at Bernstein, explained that the company’s outlook is not antithetical to that of other companies, but rather reflects the fact that there are several factors preventing the market from achieving big gains in the near term.
Rationale for this goal
Economic growth outlook
Garre expects India’s GDP growth to slow to 6.5% from 8% in the coming quarters, as the macroeconomic environment has peaked. He doesn’t expect an economic collapse, but he believes the growth cycle has peaked. Policy tools that can stimulate further economic expansion are limited and shifting responsibility to the private sector may be difficult due to potential lack of preparedness.
Market valuation and revenue growth
Garre notes that the expected recovery in revenue growth is largely factored into current market valuations, making further market growth difficult. Bernstein’s Nifty target of 28,100 suggests limited upside, with a projected two-year CAGR of 13.5% and a two-year multiple expected to increase to 19x. This suggests that despite macro stability, significant growth will be difficult at current market levels.
Sector view
real estate: Bernstein upgraded the real estate sector, hoping for a recovery from market digestion and potential interest rate cuts. However, Garre cautions that while expected returns are expected to be higher than Nifty’s 8%, they are a far cry from the 30-40% returns seen in previous cycles.
Consumer Essentials: The sector was revised downward due to intensifying competition among quick commerce companies, slowing volume growth, and uncertainty in rural demand.
Impact of India-US trade deal
He is not convinced that the India-US trade deal will have a large or lasting impact. He believes this is more of a short-term boost for the market rather than a game-changer for the economy. He expects only small changes, such as a slight growth in the stock market and a slight rise in the value of the rupee. He believes that this deal will not lead to long-term, sustainable growth because India and the US do not really cooperate well in other areas.
Adopting artificial intelligence (AI)
Garre believes that the real-world impact of AI in India will take time. He sees this as a “three- to four-year story” of significant enterprise adoption, saying AI technology is still in its infancy and real-world applications are limited, and widespread AI integration will take longer than current market hype suggests.
Monetary policy and interest rate cuts
Garre expects the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates by 50-75 basis points this year. However, he believes currency management issues leave little room for more aggressive monetary action in the near term.
as a result, Garre emphasized that the economy remains stable and is not facing collapse. He highlighted a number of sectors in which Bernstein remains bullish, including finance, telecommunications and consumer technology, with a slight overweight to IT and real estate. He also pointed out that a busy year for IPOs and fundraising will provide numerous new opportunities for investors.
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