Climate change prediction: predicting and adapting to a warming world
In an era of accelerating climate change, predicting the near future can bring great benefits. For example, if utility officials recognize a heat wave is approaching, they can plan energy procurement to prevent power outages. If farmers in drought-prone areas can predict which crops are likely to fail, they can deploy additional irrigation.
These proactive measures are made possible today through evolving technologies designed to help people adapt to the impacts of climate change. But what impact will climate change have on the future? So how will humans adapt?
Climate models provide answers
Human activities have triggered global climate change in the 20th century and will largely determine future climate. Significantly reducing greenhouse gas emissions could help alleviate the climate crisis. However, higher emissions scenarios will result in much more severe consequences from climate change in the 21st century.
Global climate models have given climate scientists a set of expectations about what the future will be like, both for the planet as a whole and for specific regions. Climate modeling consists of using data sets and complex calculations to represent the interactions between key climate system components: the atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice.
One of the latest climate modeling initiatives comes from a partnership between IBM and NASA. The current collaboration is focused on building AI-driven foundational models to make climate and weather applications faster and more accurate. The model can be used to identify conditions that potentially increase wildfire risk and predict hurricanes and droughts. Early models built through the IBM-NASA partnership have become tools to help scientists map urban heat islands in the United Arab Emirates and monitor reforestation in Kenya.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s (NOAA) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, “Climate models help adapt by reducing uncertainty in climate change impacts.”One
Let’s look at the model’s predictions for a changing climate and how society can adapt.
average global temperature rise
The most well-known sign of climate change, rising surface temperatures, also known as global warming, is a result of the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect is a process in which increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases act as a barrier, trapping heat. In the Earth’s atmosphere. According to European Union climate monitor Copernicus, 2023 was the warmest year on record, reaching almost 1.48 degrees Celsius (2.66 degrees Fahrenheit). It is warmer than pre-industrial levels in the 19th century.2
How much more will the temperature rise? Projections range from more than 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century, according to a special report on climate science from the U.S. Global Change Research Program. However, if we drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, we can limit temperature rises to well below 2 degrees Celsius.three
The transition from fossil fuels to clean, renewable energy sources is already underway, but accelerating this transition could help further limit emissions even as global energy demand grows. The International Energy Agency predicts that a combination of renewables and nuclear energy will meet more than 90% of increased demand by 2025.4
More extreme heat waves and heatwaves
As global warming progresses, heat waves will become more common and more intense. The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that people living in Africa, Australia, North America and Europe will face health risks from rising temperatures and heat waves.5
The Global Disaster Preparedness Center recommends that policymakers and others take a variety of steps to help regions adapt to higher heat. This includes steps to reduce surface temperatures, such as having more green space and designing buildings with a layer of vegetation on the roof, as well as creating cooling centers and spray parks.6
Increasing drought and water shortages
Global warming is causing more severe droughts and affecting land water storage, reducing access to freshwater. The IPCC predicts that water available for human use will continue to decline in North America, and that water security will be at risk in Africa, Asia, and South America. Drought and water shortages will also affect crop growth, reducing food security. Some parts of Africa will be particularly vulnerable, with agricultural production falling by up to 50%.7 Drier conditions are also extending wildfire seasons around the world.
Nature-based and technological solutions offer several ways to adapt to arid environments. Studies show that planting trees prevents desertification and causes more rainfall.8 Artificial intelligence-based climate predictions and crop data analysis can help farmers make informed decisions about crop management in challenging conditions. Globally, AI-based climate models and other technologies can help scientists, government officials, and utility providers predict water access conditions and improve water resource management.
Evolving Precipitation Patterns and Floods
As some areas of the Earth become drier, other areas will become wetter. The IPCC predicts that even if the temperature increase is limited to within 1.5 degrees, heavy rains and floods will become more frequent and severe in Africa, Asia, North America, and Europe. Storms and tropical cyclones are also expected to strengthen further.
Policymakers are exploring a variety of strategies to mitigate coastal and inland flooding, including the installation of canals, drainage systems and stormwater storage systems, as well as the conservation and restoration of “sponge” natural barriers such as dunes, mangroves and wetlands. In some cases, the latter may mean rolling back previous flood mitigation strategies. For example, in one city in China, officials removed concrete flood walls to create space for plants and overflow ponds.9
changes in ocean chemistry
According to the IPCC, global warming and greenhouse gas emissions are changing the composition of the world’s oceans and will continue to do so until the end of the century. As global average temperatures rise, ocean oxygen levels continue to decline due to ocean deoxygenation. Ocean acidification will also continue. Both processes are considered harmful to marine life.
The key to mitigating these changes is reducing carbon emissions, but there are other solutions as well. Runoff and water pollution contribute to deoxygenation. Monitoring legislation and limiting spills can help, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Resources.10 Addressing the problem of ocean acidification, some scientists are hopeful about new technologies to remove acids from seawater.11
global sea level rise
In the 20th century, sea levels rose rapidly due to melting glaciers and ocean thermal expansion. This trend is expected to continue. NASA found that since 1993, the average rate of global sea level rise has increased from about 2.5 millimeters (0.1 inch) per year to 3.4 millimeters (0.13 inches) per year.12 Continued sea level rise could result from instability and collapse of ice shelves and ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The IPCC predicts that global average sea level will increase by 0.29 meters (0.95 feet) by 2050 and by 1.01 meters (3.3 feet) by the end of this century.13
As with flooding, adaptation to sea level rise can take the form of man-made and nature-based solutions, including building physical barriers such as seawalls and levees and restoring or preserving natural barriers such as wetlands. Taking sea level rise into account in infrastructure design and construction projects can make those structures more resilient. In California, for example, transportation officials are planning to raise sections of a congested highway 30 feet due to rising sea levels.14
Ecosystem change and biodiversity loss
Changes in Earth’s climate system include changes in ecosystems and wildlife populations. For example, research shows that much of the Amazon is approaching a tipping point in its transformation from rainforest to savannah due to wildfires and drought, putting at risk the species that call the forest home.15 Meanwhile, global warming and resulting ocean heat waves continue to threaten coral reefs, with the IPCC predicting that coral reefs will decline by 70-90% if the average global temperature rises by 1.5 degrees Celsius. According to the United Nations, if this temperature threshold were violated, 4% of mammals would lose more than half of their habitat.16
Monitoring, conservation and restoration efforts can help save ecosystems and animals. In Europe, policymakers approved legislation setting nature restoration targets for the European Union in 2023, including binding targets to restore at least 30% of degraded habitats in EU countries by 2030 and 90% by 2050.17
As more businesses work to adapt to global climate change, having the right tools can help them monitor, predict and respond to weather and climate impacts. IBM® Environmental Intelligence Suite is a SaaS platform that includes dashboards, alerts and notifications, geospatial and weather data application programming interfaces (APIs) and additional features with industry-specific environmental models for business resilience and optimization. Learn about IBM Sustainability Accelerator.
Explore IBM Environmental Intelligence Suite
1 Climate modeling. (Link is external to ibm.com). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.
2 “Copernicus: 2023 will be the hottest year on record, with global temperatures close to the 1.5°C limit.” (Link is external to ibm.com). Copernicus, January 9, 2024.
three Special Report on Climate Science: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume 1. (Link is external to ibm.com). U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2017.
4 “IEA: By 2025, more than a third of global electricity will come from renewables.” (Link is external to ibm.com). World Economic Forum, March 16, 2023.
5 Climate Change 2023: Comprehensive Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (Link is external to ibm.com). IPCC, 2023.
6 “Heat Wave Guide for Cities.” (Link external to ibm.com) Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, 2019.
7 “What are the long-term effects of climate change?” (Link is external to ibm.com). U.S. Geological Survey.
8 “Empirical estimates of precipitation changes due to forestation in Europe.” (Link is external to ibm.com). natural earth science, 14473–478(2021).
9 “Making cities ‘spongy’ could help combat flooding by directing water underground.” (Link is external to ibm.com). NPR. October 3, 2023.
10 “Ocean Deoxygenation.” (Link is external to ibm.com). International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, December 2019.
11 “New system uses seawater to capture and store CO2.” (Link is external to ibm.com). NOAA Study, September 8, 2023.
12 “Is the rate of sea level rise increasing?” (Link is external to ibm.com). Sea level change: NASA observations from space.
13 2021: Ocean, cryosphere and sea level change. (Link is external to ibm.com) Climate Change 2021: A Physical Science Foundation. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Pages 1211-1362.
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