Commodity Trade Analysis: Aluminum | Mish’s Market Hours

Major aluminum producer Alcoa (AA) has announced cost-cutting measures with plans to scale back production at its West Australian refinery. However, this is only one facility and the company plans to continue operating the port facility located next to the refinery. Additionally, the company will continue to import and export alumina produced at its Pinjarra Alumina Refinery.

Alcoa Corporation is an industrial company headquartered in Pittsburgh. It is the world’s 8th largest aluminum producer. Alcoa operates in 10 countries. Russia is the third largest aluminum producer, India is second, and China is the world’s largest aluminum producer. I’m particularly interested in the metals mining space and industrial metals as sectors that could catch up in 2024 given supply chain disruptions.

The company’s daily chart looks interesting. There is short-term support at 31.00 and major support at 30.00. And we would really like to see the price recover 33.00. Our Leadership Metrics It performs slightly better than SPY. Real motion Momentum is improving as it crosses the 0 line again. Plus, I can’t wait to see the January calendar range reset next week.

Aluminum futures look a little different.

If you look at the futures chart, you can see that prices have fallen sharply compared to the December highs. 2180 is the main support here. A return above 2250 should see aluminum move back up and test higher levels.

If this is a double top, we will see the March contract fail at 3280. However, with the neckline breaking above 2420, it may be a somewhat one-sided reverse head and shoulders. I wouldn’t necessarily wait for it to enter this deal. However, if it goes up, I will add to my buy position.

Bottom line, AA and futures charts are great tools to use to assess the strength of industrial metals, economic growth, supply and demand, and possibly the reigniting of inflation.

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