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Rumors that an Ethereum spot ETF may be approved gave the Ethereum ecosystem gains throughout the day. The price of ETH surged 20% during the day to just under $3,700 (trading at $3,687 at the time of writing), as did its sister token Arbitrum (ARB). ) and Optimism (OP) both posted strong gains of 18% on Monday.
The bullish sentiment has already spread to other cryptocurrencies, including Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX), which are peaking above $40 and $188 respectively at the time of this writing, both of which have reached their last It showed an increase of more than 25% in 7 days.
The sudden rally to start the week was triggered after 2 o’clock. bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have jointly predicted that the Securities and Exchange Commission “could do a 180-degree turn on increasingly political issues,” and that the Ethereum spot ETF could be launched as the first major deadline approaches later this week. I was able to approve it.
They increased the estimated probability of approval to 75%. That’s a significant upgrade from a previous estimate of 25%, which was already more pessimistic than other analysts earlier this year who had put the odds of approval at 50-50.
update: @JSeyff And I am increasing the probability of spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25%). I heard this afternoon that the SEC may do a 180 on this (an increasingly political issue). It will be rejected.) Take a look… https://t.co/gcxgYHz3om
As of this writing, cryptocurrency oddsmakers are clearly changing their views, with the odds of approval for an Ethereum spot ETF by the end of the month jumping from 10% yesterday to 61% at PolyMarket. Optimism has steadily declined since the Bitcoin spot ETF was launched in January, with 76% betting options.
Much like the long and winding Bitcoin spot ETF approval process, the SEC has been systematically delaying a decision on the Ethereum equivalent. Hopes for approval have dimmed, and concerns have reached a fever pitch that once this week’s deadline passes, federal regulators will declare Ethereum a security, decisively separating it from the commodity status enjoyed by Bitcoin.
But the debate on Capitol Hill late last week led many Democrats to join Republicans in opposing the president. Joe Biden’s pro-SEC stance is a key battle in the broader partisan battle over U.S. cryptocurrency policy.
I don’t think people realize how big that vote is.
Warren dominated financial policy under the Democratic Party.
This shows that WH and Senate Democrats are starting to realize this is detrimental to their election odds.
They also know that there are *lots* of moderates… https://t.co/w8gsmw6BIn
— Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth) (@adamscochran) May 20, 2024
Meanwhile, leading cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase said it sees it as inevitable if an Ethereum spot ETF is not approved immediately on May 23.
This all happened as BTC price topped $70,000 this morning amid massive liquidation of short positions amid Bitcoin’s own rally. This is a high not seen since April 12 and is approaching the all-time high of $73,737. In March.
The good vibes were contagious, and as of late Monday, the top 25 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization were all in the green for the day and the previous seven days.
Among meme coins, Bonk and Pepe are both up more than 20% in the last 24 hours.
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