Former OpenAI researcher predicts AGI reality in 2027

ChatGPT creator Leopold Aschenbrenner, a former safety researcher at OpenAI, doubled down on artificial general intelligence (AGI) in his latest series of essays on artificial intelligence (AI).

Titled “Situational Awareness,” the series provides a glance at the state of AI systems and their promising potential over the next decade. The entire essay series is collected in a 165-page PDF file, updated June 4.

In the essay, the researchers paid special attention to AGI, a type of AI that matches or exceeds human abilities across a wide range of cognitive tasks. AGI is one of several types of artificial intelligence, including artificial narrow intelligence (ANI) and artificial superintelligence (ASI).

“AGI by 2027 is incredibly plausible,” declared Aschenbrenner, predicting that AGI machines will outpace college graduates by 2025 or 2026. He wrote:

“In 10 years they (AGI machines) will be smarter than you or me. We will have superintelligence in the true sense of the word. In the process, national security forces that have not been seen for half a century will be deployed (…).”

According to Aschenbrenner, AI systems could potentially possess intellectual abilities comparable to professional computer scientists. He also made another bald prediction: AI labs will be able to train general-purpose language models in minutes.

“To put this in perspective, let’s say GPT-4 training took three months. By 2027, leading AI labs will be able to train GPT-4 level models in just minutes.”

Aschenbrenner predicted AGI’s success, urging the community to face the reality of AGI. According to the researchers, the “smartest people” in the AI ​​industry have converged on a view called “AGI realism,” which is based on three fundamental principles related to U.S. national security and AI advancement.

Related: Anthropic employees from OpenAI call for ‘right to warn’ about AI risks

Aschenbrenner’s AGI series comes not long after he was fired from OpenAI for allegedly ‘leaking’ information. Aschenbrenner is also reportedly an ally of OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever. Ilya Sutskever was reportedly involved in a failed effort to oust OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in 2023. Aschenbrenner’s latest series is also devoted to Sutskever.

Aschenbrenner recently founded an AGI-focused investment firm with anchor investments from figures such as Stripe CEO Patrick Collison, his blog states.

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