Haley has gained momentum in recent Republican debates, but Trump remains difficult to topple
As the fourth round of the Republican presidential primary debate approaches, it looks like Nikki Haley will win the fight to become front-runner Donald Trump’s primary challenger, but that may be the limit she can reach .
“She’s the one who has all the momentum right now,” said Melissa Miller, a political science professor at Bowling Green State University in Ohio, noting that an endorsement from the Koch network last week was a major boost in fundraising.
But according to Miller, Haley’s headaches include the fact that the 2024 primary debates aren’t considered “must-see TV” because Trump keeps skipping them.
“You can’t watch a debate without Donald Trump himself on stage, really creating an environment where any candidate can have a clear breakaway moment that can put them squarely in the polls against Trump.” said the professor.
Analysts at Beacon Policy Advisors also have praise for the former South Carolina governor and former UN ambassador, along with some skepticism.
“Haley has definitely had a good month. But a few more of those will be needed for her to be considered a serious threat to Trump’s position as head of the Republican Party,” the analysts said in a note.
She recently got some nods from some of Wall Street’s biggest names. JPMorgan Chase JPM,
CEO Jamie Dimon asked for “help” for her last week, suggesting she “might be better than Trump.” Ray Dalio, founder of her giant hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, doesn’t support her, but says he’s “very smart and pragmatic.” “She is a great moral compass and can work well across factions.”
Betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics are improving, with Haley’s chances of becoming president rising to about 9% from 5% to 6% a month ago. This figure is far behind President Trump (35%) and President Joe Biden (29%).
She has 19% support in each of the polls in the key Republican primary states of New Hampshire and South Carolina, while Trump is a distant second, with 46% and 49% support, respectively, according to RCP’s poll average. .
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, previously seen as Trump’s main Republican challenger, still holds a lead over Haley in Iowa. Her approval rating is 17%, hers at 14%, and Trump’s at 47%. Iowa’s first caucus is scheduled for January 15.
Polls in states with early voting are “something you want to see” in the Republican primary. That’s because national polls “are certainly not a good indicator of anything,” Miller said. “What I’ve seen in the early state-by-state polls is that Donald Trump still has a huge lead, so I think the polls certainly give us an indication that it’s not going to be easy for someone else to win. ”
The fourth debate is scheduled for 8 PM Eastern Wednesday at the University of Alabama. It will be broadcast on cable channel NewsNation and video sharing site Rumble.
In addition to DeSantis and Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is expected to participate. It’s not yet clear whether former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will qualify this time, as the Republican National Committee tightens its requirements. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina will not attend, having withdrawn from the race shortly after the third debate.
Haley’s best-case scenario is for candidates other than Trump to “get out of the race quickly so she can compete head-to-head in the primary,” Beacon analysts said. She will then highlight Trump’s “relatively moderate stance, experience, and age, but most importantly the baggage surrounding him,” adding that the 77-year-old former president faces “some disqualifying events” such as a health crisis or legal setbacks. can do. “So she doesn’t have to take him to a fair fight.”
“This may be Haley’s best case, but it should not be the default case,” the analysts added. “Despite widespread rejection among some Republican donors, Trump is the likely front-runner to vacate the Republican nomination.”
Haley’s proposal includes a Social Security proposal that calls for raising the retirement age, but only for younger people who are just signing up. She also said she would like to eliminate the federal tax on RB00 gasoline.
To put more money in Americans’ pockets, reduce federal spending, and increase oil CL00 drilling,
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In addition, he has tried to refute the Democratic Party’s use of abortion rights as an election issue, saying, “No Republican president would have the ability to ban abortion nationwide.”
