half life holiday
This article was published in Bitcoin Magazine. “The half-life problem”. click here To get an annual Bitcoin Magazine subscription.
Setting aside certain days for celebration, commemoration or remembrance is an almost universal practice among humans. Although different cultures and religions have their own customs and traditions, humanity as a whole seems to share a fundamental tendency to recognize certain events as distinct from ordinary days.
Finally, something we can all agree on! The word “holiday” or holy day literally means a set day, but there are also examples of special events that extend beyond 24 hours, such as Hanukkah, Ramadan, or the 12 days of Christmas. Just 13 years after its founding, the early Bitcoin community also began celebrating special events such as January 3rd, October 31st, and Bitcoin Pizza Day.
Then, about every four years, something big happens.
I would argue that, unlike birthdays, Kwanzaa or Presidents’ Day, there are aspects of Bitcoin Halving that make it somewhat special compared to our standard understanding of holidays and the traditions that accompany them. Perhaps in ways that even Bitcoin’s most ardent fanatics do not yet fully understand. That’s not to say that Half-Life is more important than Christmas or more memorable than a bar mitzvah. However, the meaning and unique properties that occur in each of the 240,000 blocks are quite different from other “holidays” that humans are accustomed to observing.
We are approaching Bitcoin’s fourth halving at a block height of 840,000, which marks the start of a new era and a decrease in block rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. But we don’t know exactly when that will happen. Events cannot be displayed accurately on the calendar because they depend on block time rather than clock time. Although this is a quadrennial event that occurs every four years, it also has a clearly defined end result. There will only be 32 half-lives. Overall, predictability is somewhat paradoxical. We certainly know the block height, reward change, and total number of halvings, but we have no idea when it will occur, its impact on Bitcoin valuation, or any important indicator of the subsequent network hash rate. The inevitable debates and arguments about whether “halving is priced” or not are as useless as other classic Bitcoin debates, such as stainless steel vs. cast iron, bitcoin vs. bitcoin, or my personal favorite, sats vs. bits. there is none.
New Year’s Eve may be the closest example to Halving in terms of sharing similar holiday-type dynamics. Anticipation of a new year or new era. The tendency to pause and look back on previous years or previous eras. It’s a mystery as to what the new 12 months will bring and what the next era will bring. However, New Year’s Eve occurs every year at midnight on December 31st. Nothing is fundamentally different in the world of January 1, and as far as we can tell, humans will continue to repeat this routine indefinitely well into the future. Again, making this distinction is not to imply that one is “better than the other,” but rather to highlight the ways in which half-life is particularly unique as an emergent cultural phenomenon.
We can acknowledge that the effects of the half-life will only affect a small portion of the current world population. People who hold, trade or mine Bitcoin are the only people who actually care. But it’s fun to consider how halving celebrations could evolve and expand as global adoption of this clean asset continues to accelerate. Setting aside the uncertainty and anticipation of the event, the fundamental celebratory aspect of each halving points to one of Bitcoin’s most important attributes: its perfectly knowable and universally auditable scarcity. Since there are only 21 million Bitcoins, there can only be a total of 32 halvings. As the block reward is halved, the number of Bitcoins mined each epoch is also halved. In other words, each halving can essentially be understood as a mini-celebration in which the halving comes to a complete halt. Of course, the 32nd and final halving will be around 2140, when the last few totes will finally be mined. If Bitcoin continues on its current trajectory and one day becomes the primary currency for humans everywhere, it’s not too far-fetched to imagine what real-life holidays will look like. A day that future generations might celebrate could become a fateful day once block 6,720,000 has been mined and the final token enters the entire supply. I can tell just thinking about it.
This means that even if I live to be 100, I could see Bitcoin reach its 18th or 19th era. The block reward is approximately 10,000 sats and only 20 total coins are mined across the entire network during that epoch. Compared to today’s numbers, these facts are truly astounding. Rather than feeling sad about missing the grand finale of Bitcoin’s 32nd halving, I would like to properly celebrate the several halvings I will experience, starting with the 4th halving, which is expected to take place around April. 2024. Because this is still a new tradition, we have not yet established a cohesiveness for how best to fit each era. Some miners with strong time preferences may argue that today is a day of mourning rather than a cause for excitement. Because Bitcoin has no central authority, there will likely be numerous expressions from different people in the Bitcoin community as to how they will commemorate this event. There is probably no “wrong” way, and there is no need or expectation for a uniform way to celebrate the halving. But it may be worth borrowing insight from other holidays to explore some possible ways to make the milestone a little more memorable.
Considering the key ways humanity has marked special events throughout history can provide us with some inspiration when considering how to approach the upcoming halving and future halvings that will occur in our lifetime. I would like to point out three factors in particular that I would like to look at in more detail.
- reflect
- ceremony
- renewal
reflect: Four years, or 210,000 blocks, feels like a long time in the Bitcoin era. This feeling is likely to be even more pronounced today as we are still in the early stages of Bitcoin’s existence. Either way, as the halving approaches, I think it would be helpful for us to take some time to look back on previous eras. A lot has happened since block height 630,000, and pausing to consider how far we have come can provide healthy practice and foster deeper collaboration among those of us working to create a universal Bitcoin standard. Here are some highlights from past eras we’ve seen: El Salvador adopts Bitcoin as legal tender, Microstrategy, Tesla and SpaceX add Bitcoin to corporate treasuries, professional athlete demands multi-million dollar contracts be paid in Bitcoin, USD price is $3,000 It reaches up to $69,420, and even politicians adopt strategic talking points to attract Bitcoin users. We rallied around Hodlnaut and changed his profile picture entirely to include laser eyes. We saw the Bitcoin Super Bowl hype and the emergence of spot Bitcoin ETFs. We’ve made significant progress in a short amount of time, and looking back at these moments strengthens our resolve to keep fighting alongside fellow Bitcoiners, and even the occasional salad drinker.
ceremony: Planning and executing a party or celebration to commemorate the halving can be difficult because we do not know the exact date or time when the halving block will be mined. But few segments of the population are as creative as Bitcoin when it comes to problem-solving, and these logistical hurdles are nothing compared to the battles we’ve fought and the bears we’ve killed. If you really want to make a party a success with moving targets for the “when” line of invitations, you’ll find a way. Perhaps the key to creating a meaningful ritual is ensuring that we are present with fellow Bitcoin investors when the halving changes. By intentionally pursuing shared celebrations that can be repeated every time we bow, we can reap similar benefits found in other holiday traditions, including creating memorable moments, deepening friendships, and building community. This seems especially important for young or novice Bitcoin users who are still wondering what is happening with the halving. But even OGs can find value and inspiration in experiencing real growth and momentum from era to era simply by being surrounded by other Bitcoin miners while important blocks are mined.
renewal: Every new half-life brings new opportunities. It is impossible to predict what will happen in the next era or what new milestones will be achieved. All we can control is our own attitude, attitude and commitment to these crazy ideas that we all accept and keep popping up. Bitcoinists have the audacity to believe that a better world is possible. Many of us are here because we have rejected the lie that we must accept the prevailing norms of a corrupt monetary system. We envision an optimistic future where people can preserve their rightfully earned wealth and trade with their peers without the permission of tyrannical authorities. It’s easy for us to get distracted from this vision, especially when the harsh realities of an intense bear market take their toll, or when the latest drama breaks out on Bitcoin Twitter. But with each era, we have the opportunity to reset our mindset and return to the original reasons why we are here, why we decided to accept the ridicule of our friends and family, and why we are more committed to it. We are better able to see this through to the end than when we first started. The practice of renewal gives us new hope and reminds us that we are not fighting against each other, but against those who seek to block the sovereignty we ultimately seek.
By combining these three habits and finding ways to implement them into our approach to each halving, we can rediscover common ground, limit petty infighting, and make progress toward our common goal of defeating fiat and its harmful social byproducts. I believe we can accelerate this.
Halving is a unique event and a worthy holy day. Frankly, we don’t have to do anything and we’ll continue to receive the hard-coded benefits of predictable supply and knowable scarcity. However, for Bitcoin investors to truly maximize the potential of each halving, those behind the protocol must step up to the opportunity to intentionally develop a rich tradition to effectively commemorate these unique and rare milestones.
This article was published in Bitcoin Magazine. “The half-life problem”. click here To get an annual Bitcoin Magazine subscription.
