Is FedEx’s long-term upward trend in jeopardy? Here are some videos worth watching: | Don’t ignore this chart!

Santa Claus may have delivered plenty of presents this holiday season, but whatever burst of activity has occurred over the past few weeks, it hasn’t been enough to help FedEx (FDX) meet Wall Street’s expectations. Suppressed demand due to massive revenue losses and a muted full-year sales outlook led to a dramatic 12% drop last week.

Suppressed demand may have weakened FedEx’s performance, but that’s extremely difficult to predict on a macroeconomic scale. But from a technical analysis perspective, even if the basic picture is too blurry to look ahead, you can at least know where the inflection point is.

Chart 1. Weekly chart of FEDEX (FDX). Note FedEx’s lackluster performance relative to the broader market and industry sector. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

FDX tumbled last week, down 6% from its all-time high of $304.36. FedEx’s Relative Strength Index (RSI), which entered overbought territory last summer, has recently fallen to 50. Technically, there is some upside, which is somewhat promising considering that FedEx’s long-term upward trend is still intact. A close below the October low of $223.62 is needed for the upward trend to be invalidated.

Additionally, looking at FedEx as an indicator of global economic trade, FedEx’s price action relative to the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Industrials (XLI) shows a quiet but recovering performance. Looking at the chart, we can see the effect of suppressing demand followed by a modest recovery.

What do price movements indicate on a more short-term scale?

Chart 2. Daily chart of FDX stock. There are several key levels surrounding FedEx’s price action based on stochastic oscillators and price-by-price volume bars. This provides context for predicting the long-term trajectory of a stock. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The stock price is hovering between $250 and $255. Last week’s decline found support just above the 200-day SMA. stochastic oscillatoris currently well below the 20 level and deeply into oversold territory.

If FedEx gathers enough strength to bounce back, look for the blue dotted line above $260. Rather than looking at a series of highs from July to September, you are looking at a blue line that marks the high points of volume by price. It’s a bar, and in many cases, it sits somewhere in the middle of the price gap that tends to be filled. If you look at the trading volume for each price bar, you can see that there has been a huge sell-off at that price, making it a strong resistance area to keep an eye on.

Conversely, the same goes for the blue bar below the price. This level coincides with the November low, the March-May high (resistance turning into support?) and another noteworthy volume by price level, all indicating a potential support range. When the price breaks below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), the $225 range is likely to provide ample support.

conclusion

It may not be possible to predict how the macroeconomic winds will blow in the coming quarters, at least as it relates to global shipping. However, initial guesses in the market can be sensed and anticipated by observing these key levels. That said, keep an eye on prices in this general context. One effective method is to set price alerts at these key levels.

How to set up technical price alerts

Set up technical alerts These support and resistance levels will help you compare potential entry points with market developments that may influence your decisions.

To access the Technical Alert Workbench, follow these steps:

• Log in to your account.
• Click ‘My Dashboard’ at the top of the page.
• at dashboardClick the Notifications button or click the “New” button in the Notifications panel.
• at warning In the workbench, select the type of notification you want to create from the “Notification Type” button in the top left corner. To create a price alert, select “Price Alert” as the alert type.
• Add COST to the symbol box and set a price trigger.
• Choose how you want to be notified and click Next. save alert button.

disclaimer: This blog is written for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. You should not use any of our ideas and strategies without first evaluating your personal and financial situation or consulting a financial professional.