Litecoin’s second halving is now less than a month away.
Since the market turned around in January, the hype and expectations have continued to build. Over the past six months, Litecoin has outperformed almost every other cryptocurrency asset in the sector, increasing its value more than six-fold from recent highs of around $22 to $140. But despite this massive rise, prices are still showing little sign of a rebound. Will this time be any different from 2015?
The last Litecoin halving occurred at block 840,000 on August 25, 2015, and this time it is expected to occur 20 days earlier, at block 1,680,000 on August 5, due to the increased network hash rate slowly speeding up the clock between difficulty rebalances.
Relatively speaking, if history is anything to go by we should already have seen unhealthy vertical price spikes as people go into FOMO to capitalize on the event, but this has not happened. The price has certainly fallen significantly compared to Bitcoin, hovering around 0.0108, but has remained stable in dollar terms. Litecoin’s next move then appears to be more closely tied to that of Bitcoin, as it rises and falls alongside Bitcoin.
After breaking the 2018 collapse resistance and supporting both the established trend line and the diagonal rising trend line at $100, there appears to be strong support to prevent the price from falling below double digits. Combine this with increased volume, positive CMF, MACD, RSI and weekly moving averages (3,7,30), all of which now indicate that the trend is recovering and in the right order, and with the near-term decline being temporary, the overall case is for strength going forward. It appears to be. .
However, the last halving saw a -75% price slump, so it may be wise to exercise caution. If a similar event occurs, we could see panic selling below all of these supports back to ~$35. This time, the market situation is much more mature and the ecosystem is in a much more active and strong market, with an upward trend rather than a downward/sideways trend. Market makers looking to profit by selling could be disappointed if Bitcoin continues to rise, especially as the halving approaches.
