Market Warning: Ethereum Faces Potential Downfall as Dencun Upgrade Is Imminent

Ethereum (ETH) is poised for notable improvements with the impending Dencun upgrade to improve network scalability. However, amidst these expectations, QCP Capital, a seasoned cryptocurrency asset trading firm, has highlighted a new trend that could impact Ethereum’s price trajectory.

The company’s analysis shows a “risk reversal” in Ethereum turning negative for the upcoming expiration. These changes indicate growing concerns among investors about a potential decline in the price of ETH. This is because a negative risk reversal often suggests that the market is leaning towards protective measures against a recession.

Market Leverage and Correction Concerns

In particular, this trend towards negative risk reversals is due to the growing interest in put options, which act as a hedge against potential losses for those speculating on price increases.

Moreover, a wide range of altcoin market participants are similarly hedging their investments in Ethereum, with the goal of mitigating the risks associated with holding altcoins.

QCP Capital’s insight into market dynamics highlights fundamental anxiety about Ethereum’s price stability, especially given its significant influence within the market.

The company said it expects strong buying when prices fall, but warned of a possible market correction. QCPs mentioned in the report:

Altcoin speculators may also purchase ETH put options as a proxy to hedge altcoin declines. This makes us wary of the possibility of a correction given the level of leverage in the market. However, we think the market will aggressively buy any dips.

Additionally, Ethereum’s spot spreads have decreased slightly in contrast to Bitcoin’s consistently high spreads. QCP Capital commented on the impact for investors:

A sharp decline in spot prices is likely to cause forward spreads to fall as leveraged buying ceases.

Ethereum performance and outlook

Despite the warning signs, Ethereum continues to perform “solidly” in the cryptocurrency market, trailing Bitcoin closely in terms of price movements. Ethereum, currently trading above $4,000, has seen a slight rise of 0.6% over the past 24 hours.

Additionally, data from IntoTheBlock (ITB) shows some encouraging statistics. More than 94% of ETH addresses are currently profitable, suggesting a strong holding pattern among investors and reduced likelihood of selling pressure. This scenario could potentially set the stage for price increases.

However, Ethereum’s growth trajectory, while positive, does not reflect the notable surge that Bitcoin experienced following the approval of the Spot Exchange-Traded Fund, indicating a more measured pace of appreciation for ETH.

Featured image by Unsplash, chart by TradingView

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