Bettors on Polymarket, a decentralized blockchain prediction platform, believe there is very little chance that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, who was shockingly arrested in Paris late Saturday evening, will be released from custody.
The odds of a “yes” bet if Durov is released from custody by August 31 have dropped to a 25% chance of release on Polymarket. data Shows.
When the bet was first placed on Sunday, many put his odds of winning at 50%, but those odds dropped sharply as it became clear French authorities and judicial proceedings would likely keep him in pre-trial detention.
The basic idea of Polymarket is simple: if the user’s prediction is correct, he or she wins money; if the prediction is incorrect, the user loses the amount he or she bet.
The basic mechanism seems simple, but there are subtle differences. In prediction markets, the price of a “stock” is typically between $0.00 and $1, and its value reflects the percentage chance that an outcome will occur, essentially representing a “probability.”
Durov was arrested over the weekend as part of a preliminary police investigation by France’s National Anti-Fraud Agency, which accuses him of a lack of moderation and failure to cooperate with police, allowing for a wide range of crimes on his platform.
A Russian-born French multinational has been accused of facilitating criminal activity on its app, a claim the platform dismissed on Sunday as “ridiculous.”
Durov holds citizenship of France, UAE, Russia and Saint Kitts and Nevis.
Under French law, he can be detained for 96 hours, after which a judge must decide whether he can be held longer.
but, TF1The French website that reported the news said Durov A billionaire with a fortune of $15.5 billionHe owns a private jet and holds dual citizenship, making him a flight risk.
“Pavel Durov will most likely be detained before trial,” TF1 reported, citing an anonymous investigator working on the case.
The potential criminal record is enormous, and the investigation includes allegations of supporting terrorism, drug trafficking, theft and fraud.
Whether or not he is detained until trial, Telegram Responded Defending his innocence, Durov told the detainee he had “nothing to hide” and that Telegram “complies with EU law, including the Digital Services Act.”
“It is absurd to suggest that the platform or its owners are responsible for abuse of their platform,” Telegram said in a statement.
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