Polymarket Punter’s earnings soar to No. 1 after Biden steps down and endorses Harris

Polymarket traders saw their profits soar after President Joe Biden announced on Sunday that he would not seek reelection in November.

The trader, who operates under the username “RevengeTour19B4,” holds positions in several political prediction markets, including bets on the outcome of Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the White House.

Users bought 671,081 shares, averaging about $0.28 per share, predicting Harris’ nomination. data On Polymarket. The last time bets were traded at this level was on July 18, just days before Biden announced he was withdrawing from the race.

After Biden’s endorsement, the market price of these stocks surged to $0.90, which brought the position size to about $601,000, and the unrealized profit increased by 217% to about $410,000.

Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 race follows repeated pressure from fellow Democrats concerned about his health and age.

It may not come as a surprise to some, but Biden’s follow-up endorsement Harris’s nomination as the Democratic presidential nominee is seen as an attempt to bring voters back to the party.

“Today, I want to express my full support and endorsement of Kamala to be our party’s nominee this year,” Biden wrote on Sunday. “Democrats, it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.”

His endorsement of X via social media posts sent shockwaves through the political world and increased Harris’s chances of winning the primary.

This puts RevengeTour19B4 in first place on the Polymarket revenue leaderboard with $837,800, and also ranks first in total volume with $34.69 million.

The support also drew an immediate response from the prediction markets, with Polymarket setting a record. 24 million dollars Number of bets on Monday.

Traders who had been expecting a significant boost from Harris’s campaign quickly adjusted their positions, pushing up the stock price as they predicted her success. Harris is now projected to win the Democratic nomination with a 90 percent chance.

The mechanism underlying Polymarket trading is relatively simple: the price of a “share” in a prediction market ranges from $0.00 to $1, and the price is correlated to the percentage chance of winning, or “odds.”

The amount RevengeTour19B4 bet on Harris could theoretically yield a significant profit, provided the trader successfully liquidates his shares after the bet is completed.

The trader bought 512,914 shares of the stock at an average price of $0.12 per share in a market that predicted Harris would win the 2024 US presidential election.

The stock price has since risen to $0.33, meaning the position is now worth about $167,000, with an unrealized profit of about $106,000, or a 174% gain.

The trader’s portfolio also includes positions on other political outcomes, including the general election and the possibility of a high-profile Democratic candidate like Michelle Obama running in the primary, but the biggest gains have been tied to Harris’ fortunes.