S & P 500 Slide Description: Past price behavior on market dip has been revealed | Cappthesis

On Wednesday, only 4%of the S & P 500 had a profit. Since early 2024, this has only occurred three times.

• August 5, 2024: Last day of summer correction
• December 18, 2024: Fed’s Mashcut
• April 4, 2025: tariff

Remember that the main lows were Escede in August and in early April. that S & P 500 ($ SPX) fell by 10% and 21%, respectively, with two tropes in the peak, respectively, and the minimum is indicated by the emphasized surrender (April 7 was actually low). The rubber band of the market has been violent two times next week.

Figure. The past lowest of the S & P 500 index. Pay attention to rebounds, following August 5, December 18 and April 4.With the SPX increased by 20% from the lowest level in April, the setting is similar to mid -December 2024, which has emerged to nearly 6,100 from early December from early August to early December. FOMC’s actions have been placed in a calm elevation.

The S & P 500 has not been completely collapsed since then and has spent 10 weeks of sponsorship and filling. But the market’s character has changed, and the crack eventually led to the decline of waterfalls.

So what do you say about this moment? There is a clear risk considering the unilateral dictionary over the last few weeks, but if the optimistic pattern still works and the $ SPX has a large cushion, you can come back and fill it again. It is the first chapter punch in four weeks, and we must prove that the market can absorb it.

Short -term view of S & P 500

The blow measured at the highest Monday’s highest point is -2.4%. Most of them happened on Wednesday. Considering how small movements are in the last few weeks, the big decrease of Wednesday was very difficult for the relative intensity index (RSI) for 14 weeks on a two -hour chart. It is now in 41, which is very close to 30-hold threshold.

Again, we have seen that short -term indicators fall into alternative areas several times while the market is rising from August to December. It is not surprising to see what happens again this time. If this happens, it is important for the next bounce to return the SPX to the excess range. Remember that we have been nearly four months between the end of January to mid -May.

Figure 2. 2 hours chart of S & P 500 using RSI.

S & P 500 pattern

Despite selling, there was no change in the pattern at work. The two strong patterns remain with the goals of 6,125 and 6,555, respectively. The S & P 500 began on Thursday at about 2.5%from the last brake out zone (5,695).

Figure 3. Daily chart of S & P 500 with a strong pattern. Here you will see a pattern with 6,125 targets.

Figure 4. Daily chart of S & P 500 with a price goal of 6,555.

Monitor VIX

of course CBOE volatility index ($ VIX) gained 15%in response to the selling of the Wednesday market on Wednesday. It is close to 20, but it has become a trend since late 2024. In fact, it is a trend that is worth the ball from April to the top of the spike.

The VIX did not truly surrender in 2022, but let’s remember that the highest trend coincides with the decline in the stock market. The low minimum of VIX became clear when the SPX recorded the true low in October 2022. This lasted last summer.

If the SPX snapback is longer and a new rise trend, the VIX’s synergy is transformed again.

Figure. The weekly chart of the CBOE volatility index ($ VIX).

Bonds represent a strong pattern

The optimistic pattern of the 30 -year financial yield and the 10 -year financial yield is clear. Acceleration from 2023 after Wednesday will have a clear negative impact on stocks.

As discussed earlier, the stock market showed that as long as the ratio increased gradually, it could develop at a higher rate. The intermittent upward rates have been blocked over the past two years. Therefore, stocks were able to withstand this. It was not from January to September 2022, and it is a potential concern.

Figure. 30 years of weekly chart of the US Trasury yield index.

Figure 7. Weekly chart of the US Treasury Return Index.

We are holding Bitcoin strongly

So far, Bitcoin has maintained its relative strength even if the stock is struck on Wednesday. In short, if you keep this brake out zone, you can maintain a 142K new measured mobility goal.

Figure 8. Weekly chart of $ BTCUSD with measured migration goals.

From another point of view, this movement can be seen as the fourth wedge brake out since 2023. Previously 3, BTC’s 14 -week RSI remained excessive for several weeks. The 14 -week RSI is approaching the level of overdue, suggesting that it is even further.

Figure 9. Wedges Brake Out and RSI Weekly Chart of $ BTCUSD.