SpaceX stock fell 32%. Is it time to buy?
Stocks of rocket and satellite companies SpaceX (SPCX +0.13%) They fell as fast as they rose. Since its market debut this month, the stock has risen to $225.64, and as of this writing, the stock is down about 32% to about $153.
This decline in the stock market, which investors were not fully satisfied with just a few weeks ago, raises obvious questions. Is now the time to buy? Starlink and the company behind its leading rocket launch business are among the most watched companies anywhere. However, a low price doesn’t automatically make a stock a good deal, and in the case of SpaceX, the valuation still appears stretched.
Image source: Getty Images.
Understand what drives SpaceX’s business
SpaceX completed its initial public offering (IPO) on June 12, setting its stock price at $135. It was the largest market debut in history. A prospectus filed ahead of the offering gave investors the first details about the financials behind the hype.
The top numbers are impressive. SpaceX reported 2025 revenue of $18.7 billion, up 33% from the previous year. And most of that came from its satellite internet business, Starlink, which generated $11.4 billion in revenue, up 48% from 2024 (about 61% of the company’s total). Starlink closed in March 2026 with more than 10 million subscribers.
Even better, Starlink is profitable. The segment will generate operating profits of approximately $4.4 billion in 2025, making it a profit center for the company.
SpaceX’s space division, which includes NASA launch operations and crewed missions, has added about $4 billion in revenue, but the company is spending about $3 billion developing its next-generation Starship rocket.
This spending, combined with aggressive spending to support early AI efforts, means SpaceX is overall unprofitable. The company reported a total net loss of $4.9 billion for 2025, including results from xAI, its recently absorbed artificial intelligence (AI) business. The AI division has generated about $3.2 billion in revenue but is losing money.
space exploration technology
today’s change
(0.13%) $0.20
current price
$153.20
Key data points
market capitalization
$2.0T
work range
$148.52 -$158.40
52 week range
$147.11 -$225.64
volume
3M
average volume
226.4M
What is the stock’s value?
Even after falling 32%, SpaceX stock continues to look overvalued. For a company with a market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion, negative earnings, and a price-to-sales ratio above 100, the bull case rests on highly speculative assumptions about the company’s long-term prospects.
A valuation multiple like this over several years of flawless execution is a path to not only continued rapid growth for Starlink, but also significant company-wide gains, even if SpaceX funds Starship and absorbs xAI’s losses. It assumes that almost everything goes right. No wonder some on Wall Street think the valuation is ahead of the business.. morning starFor starters, they estimate SpaceX’s fair value at about $780 billion (about half its private market value) and say the stock is significantly overvalued.
Let me be clear: I love this business. And I believe that will have very good results in the long run. SpaceX has a dominant launch franchise, and in Starlink, few companies have fast-growing, high-margin assets. The question is, are you paying for it? It’s nearly impossible to justify a price anywhere close to where the stock is currently trading.
That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock continue to trade based on sentiment rather than fundamentals. SpaceX has a hugely popular founder, Elon Musk, and a huge retail following. And such stocks can remain expensive for much longer than the numbers alone suggest. So while the stock price could certainly go higher from here, the math doesn’t work for me and I can’t make an investment case based on unpredictable emotions. Personally, I will watch from the side.
