Speculator’s Diary, first entry (6 October 2023). – Analysis and Forecast – January 6, 2024
start. Trade XAU/USD.
Fishing is one of the oldest ways to obtain food, and there is no one who does not know how to catch a fish with a fishing rod.
Rod, line, float, weight and hook. What else do you need besides bait to catch fish? you’re right. Appropriate skills and experience are required. A Russian proverb says: “You can’t catch a fish in a pond without effort.”
You can also go to the river with a fishing rod and catch fish with freshly dug bugs. I don’t think it’s a wise idea to take another kilogram of fish besides a worm just to catch a few more kilograms from the river with its help.
What am I talking about? Moreover, FOREX trading is similar to fishing. Here and there appropriate skill and experience are needed, here and there “thirsts to appease their hunger” are trying to get food for themselves, but here and there there are some who are not at all successful. And yes, it is. FOREX is not a place where you have to take a million dollars to make two dollars. In FOREX, you have to “take the fishing rod” as if you were going fishing and catch as much as your knowledge, acquired skills, and accumulated experience in speculative trading will allow.
The problem of profitable trading in FOREX lies at the level of choosing the necessary “fishing rod”. My fishing rod of choice is using the Niro Method in speculative trading. This method is a way to model future value dynamics in financial markets. “Capital Market”.
There are many different types, methods and methods of fishing. Fishing can be commercial, sport, or amateur. Sometimes it’s winter and sometimes it’s summer. sometimes rivers, lakes, sometimes seas; It occurs on shores, in boats, on ice surfaces, entering water bodies, and sometimes through underwater fishing. You can float, spin, bottom, use a spear, shoot fish from a bow, and sometimes shoot from an underwater gun. In general, something to suit every taste. Well, the number of fishing methods and types of fishing gear is endless, so it is impossible to list or describe them.
Do you understand what I’m getting at? Moreover, deciding what to buy, what to sell, where to place take profit, where to place stop loss is preceded by fundamental and technical analysis, the types of which are endless.
There are countless ways to fish, as well as analyze charts technically. My method is the Niro method, it’s not better or worse than the other methods, it’s just different.
The key to modeling price dynamics is identifying the fractal structure of a chart and describing it using attractors from the Niro alphabet.
If you think of the Niro Method as a fishing rod, you put a $3 deposit on the bait. They are essentially the equivalent of a worm on a hook, and have absolutely no value compared to fish that can be eaten or sold.
Let’s start trading gold (XAU/USD).
The most likely fractal structure on the gold price dynamics chart as of August 18, 2023 is the fractal structure shown in Figure 1-1.
According to this fractal structure, the model for the future dynamics of the gold price is a continuation of the fractal formation shown in blue in Figure 1-1.
This FMFS-I scenario for the development of gold price dynamics (Figure 1-1) assumes that the fractal shown in green began to form at the point with coordinates (09.26.2022; 1621.01). This fractal ended at coordinates (20.03.2023; 2009.68).
The green fractal was formed by Fractal F-#21 from Niro’s Alphabet of Attractors. Additionally, the first part of the green fractal is F-No. Formed into a fractal shape. 13, the time interval one step lower (09.26.2022; 12.13.2022) is shown in orange. The second part of the green fractal is F-No. Formed into a fractal shape. 24 days apart in time (December 13, 2022, December 22, 2022). The third part of the green fractal was formed in the form of fractal F-No.22, which is shown in purple at the time interval (December 21, 2022, March 20, 2023).
Therefore, we can assume that in the time interval (September 26, 2022; March 20, 2023) the first segment of the fractal, shown in blue, was formed in the cost range (1621.01; 2009.68). If so, then the second segment of this blue fractal was formed in the time interval (March 20, 2023, August 18, 2023) as a fractal of order less than 1, which is the Chart Alphabet of Attractors in Fractal F-No. This is Sniro’s number 21 dark purple color.
The first segment of this dark purple fractal was formed in the time interval (March 20, 2023, May 26, 2023) in the form of fractal F-No.14, which has less first order and appears in light brown color. . The second segment of the dark purple fractal formed as a single segment in the time interval (May 26, 2023; June 2, 2023). Well, the third part of this dark purple fractal F-No. 21 was formed in the form of a fractal F-No. in the time interval (June 2, 2023, August 18, 2023). It is marked in pink on the chart as 23.
Taking these assumptions into account, the future gold price dynamics within the framework of the FMFS-I scenario should occur with an upward trend within the framework of the formation of the third segment of the fractal, shown in blue. Chart.
As of August 18, 2023, it has been assumed that the completion of the second segment of the blue fractal in the time interval (March 20, 2023; August 18, 2023) will be followed by an explosive rise in the price of gold. Within this range, the price of a troy ounce should exceed $2,100. However, the asking price did not explode, and over a period of time (August 18, 2023, September 18, 2023) a fractal structure was formed, with the gold price remaining almost unchanged and staying in a narrow range of $1,900. ounce (Figure 1-2).
Despite the sluggish growth in estimates, the FMFS-I scenario still remains under consideration. If so, an explosion of estimates should still be expected.
Analyzing the small fractal structure, we find that in the time interval (August 18, 2023, September 18, 2023) the fractal F-No. Number 34 of Niro’s alphabet was formed and is marked in red in the graph. If this assumption is correct, an explosive increase in the price is possible in only one case: if this red fractal is the first segment of a larger order fractal F-No. 35, displayed in orange. In this case, we should expect gold prices to plummet as the second part of the orange fractal forms, followed by a sharp rise in gold prices as the third part of the orange fractal forms. That’s $2,100 per ounce (Figure 1-2).
The orange fractal thus formed becomes the first part of the next higher fractal and is shown in green on the graph (Figure 1-2). After the orange fractal is completed, the price of gold should decline as the second part of the green fractal forms, after which the price increase will continue at a much faster rate, updating the historical high as part of the formation. Third part of green fractal.
As of September 18, 2023, we can say that the most opportune moment to buy gold will be the completion of the second segment of the orange fractal at one of the Fibonacci grid levels (Figure 1-3).
The length of the first segment of the orange fractal is 47.40 USD. In the event of a plunge, the most likely length of the second segment of the orange fractal is equal to 2.618 of the length of the first segment, or 124.09 USD. Therefore, the acceptable quotation for opening a long gold position ranges from 1,812 to 1,815 USD per troy ounce (Figure 1-4).
On October 6, 2023, after the completion of the second segment of the orange fractal at the calculation point determined by minute-by-minute analysis of the smallest fractal structure on the chart, a long position in gold was opened at a price of 0.01 lots. That’s $1,813.56 per troy ounce (Figure 1-5).
The closing price of the daily candle on June 10, 2023 above the market entry point gives reason to assume that the selected model is accurate for the future dynamics of the gold price according to the FMFS-I scenario (Figure 1-5).
In anticipation of an explosive rise in gold prices, we decided to add a pending buy stop order of 0.02 lots at $1,873.56 per ounce in addition to the open buy position (Figure 1-6).
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Read all diary entries on the Cost Forecast website at the link https://costforecast.bitrix24.site/blog1-2-en/.
