Stock markets struggle to maintain a “moving” trend as industrials try to lead | April 15, 2024 | GoNoGo Chart

good morning. Welcome to this week’s Flight Path. The stock “Go” trend continued this week, but saw some weakness as the GoNoGo trend drew a series of weak aqua bars to close out the week. We haven’t seen a new high in several weeks, so we’ll see if the “Go” trend can hold this week. Treasury prices maintained the “NoGo” strength we found last week, seeing a series of dark purple bars. Commodity indices continued their strength this week, with the blue “Go” bar taking the top spot. The dollar also had a very strong week, regaining the bright blue bar and hitting new highs.

Stocks are tied to a “going” trend.

The price has struggled to move higher since the last Go Countertrend Correction icon (red arrow). In fact, we’ve fallen off that high and have recently started painting weaker aqua bars. This is the strongest threat to the “Go” trend we have seen in months. GoNoGo Oscillator fell to zero and struggled to regain positive territory. In fact, we have seen it fall into negative territory and even quickly retest that level. The oscillator is brought back into negative territory by 0. This means that momentum has not kept pace with the “Go” trend. For the “Go” trend to survive, you will want to see the oscillator regain positive territory.

We see the first cracks in the weekly “Go” trend. Another lower close was painted in a weaker teal by the GoNoGo Trend. When the GoNoGo oscillator falls out of overbought territory, the Go Countertrend Correction icon (red arrow) will appear, indicating that the price may struggle to move higher in the near term. If you look at the bottom panel you can see that the GoNoGo Oscillator is dropping sharply. Let’s watch closely as the oscillator approaches the zero line. We know that a healthy “Go” trend requires the oscillator to stay above zero, so we need to see if the oscillator finds support at that level.

Interest rates hit another record high.

With strong blue “Go” bars continuing to appear throughout the week, prices are expected to hit another high on the daily chart of U.S. Treasury yields this week. You will see a Go Countertrend correction icon (red arrow) indicating that the price may struggle to move higher in the near term. This may result in a pause as the GoNoGo Oscillator turns around and heads towards the zero line. We will watch for support as the price momentum cools and the oscillator falls towards the zero line as the price falls off its recent highs.

The dollar has surged this week as prices jumped to new highs.

How much the dollar rebounded later this week. It was no surprise that the price dropped after the Go Countertrend Correction icon (red arrow), with the blue “Go” bar confirming some trend weakness. It was then important to observe the oscillator panel as it tested the zero line (the dark blue oscillator line) at high volume. It quickly found support and bounced back into positive territory, which gave the price the pressure it needed to gap higher for the second time in three days and cement a new high.

The long-term chart shows that the price has clearly surpassed a strong resistance level that has been on the chart since October 2023. With the skies wide open and momentum surging in the direction of the “Go” trend, we will be looking for price consolidation. From this level you can potentially go higher. The GoNoGo trend has been drawing intense blue “Go” bars for four weeks in a row.