The future of renewable energy

Renewable energy is energy produced from the Earth’s natural resources and can be replenished faster than it is consumed. Common examples include solar power, hydroelectric power, and wind power. Switching to these renewable energy sources is key to fighting climate change.

Today, a variety of incentives and subsidies are making it easier for businesses to rely on renewable sources as a reliable source of power to help mitigate the climate crisis. But the next generation of clean energy requires more than just incentives. Innovative technologies are needed to advance to improve energy efficiency and help the world reach net-zero carbon emissions.

sunlight

Converting sunlight into electrical energy occurs in two ways: photovoltaic (PV) or solar thermal power (CSP). Solar power generation, the most common method, uses solar panels to collect sunlight, convert it into electrical energy, and store it in batteries to use it for various purposes.

The cost of solar power has fallen nearly 90% over the past decade due to falling material prices and advancements in installation processes, making it more accessible and cost-effective.^One Facilitating this further is the next generation of solar PV technology, which produces lighter, more flexible, more powerful and more efficient solar panels that can generate electricity even during periods of low sunlight.

Solar energy generation relies on energy storage systems (ESS) for consistent distribution. Therefore, as power generation capacity increases, storage systems must also adapt. For example, flow battery technology is being improved to support grid-scale energy storage. Flow batteries, an inexpensive, reliable, and scalable form of ESS, can store hundreds of megawatt hours of electricity on a single charge. This allows utilities to store energy for long periods of time during periods of low or no production, helping to manage loads and build a reliable and resilient power grid.

As renewable power capacity expands, expanding ESS capabilities becomes increasingly important for decarbonization efforts and a clean energy future. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), renewable energy increased global capacity by 50% in 2023 alone, and solar power generation accounted for three-quarters of that capacity. And from 2023 to 2028, renewable power capacity is expected to increase by 7,300 gigawatts, and solar PV and onshore wind usage will at least double from current levels in India, Brazil, Europe, and the United States by 2028. It is expected.²

wind

Humans have used wind power to produce mechanical and electrical energy for generations. As a clean, sustainable and cost-effective source of power, wind energy offers enormous potential to increase the global renewable energy transition with minimal impact on ecosystems. According to IEA forecasts, wind power generation is expected to more than double to 350 gigawatts (GW) by 2028.^three China’s renewable energy market is expected to grow by 66% in 2023 alone.⁴

Wind turbines have evolved from small scale, such as domestic windmills, to utility scale for wind farms. But some of the most exciting developments in wind technology are in the area of ​​offshore wind power, with many offshore wind projects sailing into deeper waters. Large-scale wind farms are being developed to harness stronger offshore wind power, potentially doubling offshore wind power capacity. In September 2022, the White House announced plans to deploy 30 GW of floating offshore wind power by 2030. The plan would provide more clean energy to 10 million households, lower energy costs, support clean energy jobs, and further reduce the country’s dependence. To fossil fuels.⁵

As more clean energy is integrated into the power grid, predicting renewable energy production becomes critical to managing a reliable and resilient power supply. Renewable Energy Forecasting is a solution that generates accurate and consistent forecasts for variable renewable energy resources like wind power based on AI, sensors, machine learning, geospatial data, advanced analytics, best-in-class weather data, and more. More accurate forecasts will help operators integrate more renewable energy technologies into the power grid. Improve efficiency and reliability and reduce operating costs by better predicting when to increase or decrease production. For example, Omega Energia increased its utilization of renewable energy by improving forecast accuracy to 15% for wind and 30% for solar. These improvements have helped increase maintenance efficiency and minimize operating costs.

hydroelectric power

Hydro energy systems use the movement of water, including the flow of rivers and streams, ocean and tidal energy, and reservoirs and dams, to spin turbines to generate electricity. According to the IEA, hydropower will remain the largest clean energy provider through 2030, with exciting new technologies emerging.⁶

For example, small-scale hydropower uses mini and microgrids to provide renewable energy to rural areas and areas where larger infrastructure (e.g. dams) is not feasible. Small-scale hydropower, which uses pumps, turbines or water wheels to convert the natural flow of small rivers and streams into electricity, provides a sustainable source of energy with minimal impact on local ecosystems. In many cases, communities can connect to a centralized power grid and sell back the surplus power they produce.

In 2021, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) deployed three turbines in New York City’s East River made from a new thermoplastic composite material that is less corrosive and more recyclable than existing materials. The new turbine produced the same amount of energy in the same amount of time as the old turbine, but without any noticeable structural damage.⁷ Extreme conditions testing is still needed, but this inexpensive recycled material has the potential to revolutionize the hydropower market if widely used.

geothermal

Geothermal power plants (large-scale) and geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) (small-scale) use steam or hydrocarbons to convert heat from the Earth’s interior into electricity. Geothermal energy was once location-dependent, requiring access to geothermal reservoirs deep in the Earth’s crust. Latest research helps make geothermal location-independent.

Enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) bring needed water from beneath the Earth’s surface to waterless places, making geothermal energy production possible in places around the planet that was previously impossible. And as ESG technologies advance, harnessing the Earth’s infinite heat supply has the potential to provide unlimited access to clean, affordable energy for everyone.

biomass

Bioenergy is generated from biomass composed of organic materials such as plants and algae. Although it is often debated whether biomass is actually renewable, today’s bioenergy is a virtually zero-emission energy source.

The development of biofuels, including biodiesel and bioethanol, is of particular interest. Researchers in Australia are exploring ways to convert organic materials into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This can reduce the carbon emissions of jet fuel by up to 80%.⁸ The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) develops technologies that improve the quality of bioenergy and bioproduct production while reducing the cost and environmental impact.⁹

Technology supporting the future of renewable energy

The clean energy economy relies on renewable energy sources that are vulnerable to environmental factors, and as more energy is integrated into the power grid, technologies that help manage these risks are critical. The IBM Environmental Intelligence Suite can help organizations increase resilience and sustainability by predicting potential disruptions and proactively reducing risk across operations and extended supply chains.

Watch a demo of the Environmental Intelligence Suite Renewables Forecasting platform to learn how to create high-accuracy renewable energy production forecasts for wind and solar farms.

Explore IBM’s energy and utility forecasts

^{1 Fossil fuels are ‘going obsolete’ as solar panel prices plummet (link resides outside ibm.com), The Independent, September 27, 2023.}

^{2 Massive expansion of renewable electricity opens the door to achieving global tripling target set at COP28 (link resides outside ibm.com), International Energy Agency, 11 January 2024.}

^{3 Wind (link resides outside ibm.com), International Energy Agency, 11 July 2023.}

^{4 Renewable Energy—Electricity (link resides outside ibm.com), International Energy Agency, January 2024.}

^{5 New Actions to Expand US Offshore Wind Energy (link resides outside ibm.com), White House, September 15, 2022.}

^{6 Hydropower (link resides outside ibm.com), International Energy Agency, 11 July 2023.}

^{7 10 Important hydropower achievements from 2021, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, January 18, 2022.}

^{8 To power a future built for life (link resides outside ibm.com), Jet Zero Australia, accessed 11 January 2024.}

^{9 Renewable Carbon Resources (link resides outside ibm.com), Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, accessed December 28, 2023.}