The Half-Life Problem: A Letter from the Editor

First, 50.

Then, 25.

Finally 12.5.

After that, 6.25.

And now it’s 3.125.

After four halvings, we enter the fifth of Bitcoin’s 33 eras. In Bitcoin terms, the first 32 epochs last for 210,000 blocks, and the 33rd epoch lasts until the universe dies.

On average, 10 minutes per block means that Bitcoin’s supply is halved approximately every four years. The specific numerical finiteness downstream of this mechanism that defines Bitcoin’s scarcity in a nearly infinite universe is ultimately irrelevant. Satoshi could have started with a 100 Bitcoin block reward and we would have been in roughly the same place today. However, there are some statistical biases in starting at 50, such as 50% of all Bitcoins to be minted during the first epoch. So 25% of all Bitcoins ever issued were issued a second time, and so on.

Fourth, the fourth era will end in the fourth month of 2024, when the fourth halving is completed at block 840,000. A lot happened in the fourth. A Bitcoin fiat bid in El Salvador, an ETF play on Wall Street, a soft fork supporting Taproot, and even Ordinals.

With each new halving, a justification for the circular theory arises as to whether supply issuance can be “priced”.

Each halving is a time of self-reflection for Bitcoin users and the culture they govern. Not only is Bitcoin no longer a counterculture to state and Wall Street adoption (co-optation?), it is no longer a monoculture. Many things were born in this era, but perhaps the most notable was the death of the homogenous Bitcoin miners.

Bitcoin can be used by anyone. Salvadorans, Larry Fink, Bored Apes and ESG’ers.

Welcome to the Fifth Age.

editor