The Science and Art of Stock Market Forecasting | Mish’s Market Hours

Over the holidays I thought a lot about forecasts and how they are formed.

The dictionary meaning of prediction is a statement about future events. Or data. Many of the predictions I’ve seen for 2024 are made by knowledgeable people in the financial sector. Probability, intuition, experience, inductive and deductive reasoning are all factors used to make predictions.

In the case of Raymond Lo and the Chinese New Year, his predictions are based on his research, education, and experience. Lo became famous for accurately predicting hundreds of events. I integrate his predictions with mine. I like to think it makes my predictions stronger. (You can find them all on our website Market Beat..)

I think the forecasts are very compelling, especially this year, because they use statistical inference, that is, models based on cross-sectional data. That said, based on last year’s market performance and this election year, the model is statistically favoring a market rally in 2024.

“In science, a prediction is a rigorous, quantitative statement that predicts what will be observed under certain conditions.” And that’s the question of stock market predictions “under certain conditions.” So what happens when these conditions change? And how do chaos theory and randomness factor in?

We already know that there are factors that can cause further confusion, such as:

• Geopolitics: supply chain, labor issues, possible recession and rising inflation.
• Natural Disasters
• Debt and Government Spending
• dollar in decline
• The FED’s Mistakes in Cutting Rates Too Quickly or Keeping Rates Flat While CPI Is Rising

Not to mention the concept of randomness, or that things happen that we cannot imagine or prepare for in advance.

There is a butterfly effect in chaos theory. It is a metaphor for a butterfly flapping its wings in New Mexico and indirectly causing a tsunami in Japan. There are a lot of butterflies flapping their wings!

From Wikipedia, “Economic events can last for years, and the world is changing over a similar period of time, invalidating the relevance of past observations to the present. Therefore, the number of relevant events is extremely small (maybe one). Past data that predicts the future. That’s the point.” Let’s just call it a lagging indicator.

However, this year, we cannot confirm any unexpected events, so we already know what could cause chaos, but we cannot know. If the nor when,

What can we do?

It’s all two things:

1. Assess market behavior using tools
2. risk control

When it comes to tools, January is a great time to study calendar ranges. This is what Geoff teaches in tonight’s course. How to Identify Profit from January’s Big Trend Trades. I will also be discussing and writing a lot about this over the next three weeks. It will also help you become familiar with chart patterns and steps. And that’s all there is to risk. Active investment will be important this year.

Remember the dragon and how we didn’t want to tickle it? right. Enjoy it when the dragon becomes the gate of heaven. However, without risk control, investors can get hurt due to the nature of predictions and the unknowns (and the knowns that cannot be predicted when they will worsen). There may be dragons, even at the gates of hell, so we must be more vigilant.

Click this link to get your free copy of Outlook 2024 and stay updated!

This is for educational purposes only. Trading involves risk.

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Stay tuned for the next clip. business first morning, fox business, BNN Bloomberg and final bar!

Recorded on December 28, Mish talks to Singapore Breakfast Bites about the themes to look for in 2024 and what to focus on, what to buy and what to avoid depending on economic and market conditions.

Mish, along with two other market experts, helps you prepare for 2024 with forecasts, picks and technical analysis from StockCharts TV. draw a chart ahead special.

Recorded on December 27, Mish provides a brief snippet of his overall macro predictions for 2024. Streets with JD Durkin.

As Mish and friends look ahead to 2023, Benzinga Pre-Market Prep makes some predictions about products, trends, and vanity inventory for 2024.

Mish discusses gold, silver, self-care and why “all about me” could be a trend in 2024. This video source provided by Yahoo!

Coming soon:

January 3: Real Vision IP Group Special Presentation

January 5: Daily briefing, Real Vision

January 22nd: Your Daily 5Stock Chart TV

January 24: Yahoo! Jae Won

weekly: Business-first AM, CMC market

• S&P 500 (Spy): 480 all-time high, 460 base support.
• Russell 2000 (IWM): 200 is key.
• Dow (HE): You should get 370.
• NASDAQ (QQQ): 410 is the key.
• Local Bank (KRE): Support is 47 and resistance is 55.
• Semiconductor (SMH): 170 support must be maintained.
• Transportation (IYT): You must have 250.
• Biotechnology (IBB): 130 Pivotal support.
• Sleeve (XRT): The longer it stays above 70.00, the better!

Misch Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education