This is the meaning of your portfolio

that S & P 500 ($ spx) I just recorded Fifth consecutive trading box brake outThis has been solved by all of the five trading ranges experienced by the index since the lowest in April.

How long can it last? It was the biggest problem since the massive rally on April 9. Instead of assuming that the market would be released, it was more productive to track prices and watch potential changes in the process. So far, Drawdown has been minimized and the ride has continued. None of the price behavior has no hints on continuous changes.

Some have a recent precedent while calling this rally “historical”. Since the late 2023, since early 2024, the index has been a strong start and has been consistent and steady.

S & P 500 was recorded from late October 2023 to March 2024. seven Continuous trading box brake out. The stripes were finally suspended from the end of March to the beginning of April. As we know now, it’s just a temporary hiccup. When the bid was returned, the S & P 500 carved a new box and returned to a higher climb.

The new 52 -week high was finally picked up

If there is one grip for this rally, the new top number in the index is delayed. As we have previously discussed, the new best is always delayed, among all the internal width indicators available. It is normal. What are we really What you want to see is whether the market will begin to exceed the previous highs as the market continues to rise as you can see on the blue line of the chart below.

As of Wednesday, the 100 S & P 500 stocks were at the maximum or 3% of the new 52 weeks. It is a powerful base. We expect this figure to continue to increase as the market rises. Especially when a positive income reaction lasts over the sector.

However, it may not be the best time to start a new long, even when you get a new 52 -week high on the first day with 100+ S & P 500 stocks.

The above chart shows that many stocks must align a lot of stocks at once. This led to short -term integration unless it was a deeper fullback, as historically emphasized in yellow. Of course, every day is different, but this should be watched in the next week.

Trend Confirmation: Gonogo Still “GO”

that Gonogo trend It remains Strong modeThe recent counter trend signal has not yet triggered a bigger fullback.

Vigorous pattern

We still have two living targets 6,555 and 6,745It can be with us for a while. To arrive the S & P 500, you need to form a new and smaller version of the trading box.

The weak pattern failed

In the chart below, you can see the rising wedge pattern at the third price since April. The previous two wedges were broken for a while and did not lead to a big downturn. In each case, the largest fullback occurred after the S & P 500 fell below the low trend line of the pattern.

The deepest blow so far is 3.5%, which is not exactly a game changer. Without follow -up follow -up measures, classic weakness patterns cannot simply be subdivided.

We will continue to monitor when they develop, as these structures will continue to be monitored as they develop.

Author Information:

Frank is the founder and boss of Cappthesis, an independent research company, and helps active investors through time -tested charts and statistical analysis. He has spent decades in Wall Street and has both CMT and CFA designation. Learn more