Time for Sweet Talk: Sugar Gifts | Mish’s Market Hours

The biggest move so far in a month was in sugar futures, up more than 16%.

I follow weather patterns well and have predicted that the weather could have a big impact on several crops this year, so one of my main concerns for sugar is that the current El Nino weather pattern will reduce global sugar production.

Additionally, India’s ban on sugar exports will continue to strain global sugar supplies. This comes after India announced a 50% export tax on molasses from sugar refining. India’s monsoon (June-September) was 6% below average, recording the lowest monsoon rainfall in five years.

Additionally, on November 1, Thai Sugar Millers Corp forecast that Thailand’s 2023/24 sugar production would fall -36% year-on-year, hitting a 17-year low, due to severe drought.

I like to look at sugar as an indicator of food prices (it’s in virtually all processed foods) and as an indicator of social unrest and inflation. People will fight over sugar when it is scarce. It’s not even Valentine’s Day yet. As more and more reports claim inflation is over, the sweet white stuff is worth paying attention to.

CANE, a sugar ETF, found some resistance at its 200-day moving average. However, it easily cleared the high end of its six-month range in January, so a long-term upward trend seems clear. CANE is outperforming SPY and the momentum has been decent, but we can see the momentum starting to pick up as the price rises further.

On the March 2024 futures chart, 23.00 is support and 24.00 is resistance. Most notable is the concept of the Super Cycle. Sugar is a good example, rising 400% since 2020 before falling nearly 40%. And it is up 20% since reaching its current low of 20.00.

Volatility is, of course, an inherent characteristic of supercycles. Has the next wave begun?

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Coming soon:

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weekly: Business-first AM, CMC market

• S&P 500 (Spy): 480 is now a pivotal area.
• Russell 2000 (IWM): It has 195 backbones and 190 supports.
• Dow (HE): Supports 375.
• NASDAQ (QQQ): Supports 408-409.
• Local Bank (KRE): There are over 50 that need to be maintained.
• Semiconductor (SMH): Supports 184.
• Transportation (IYT): 262 now plays a pivotal role.
• Biotechnology (IBB): 135 is the key.
• Sleeve (XRT): Support held at 65 but still needs to recover above 70.00.

Misch Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education