Trading Day: Elasticity surpasses uncertainty
Global and US stocks have risen up to 3%of profits, advanced dollars, and financial returns, and closed the mains with the VIX index of the US stock market fluctuations. On the surface, a strong state for investor sentiment and risk feelings.
But it will be only half of the story.
According to the numbers, the US economy was statistical due to records recorded in trade in the first quarter, but perhaps the first contraction for three years was in the middle of the technology recession.
Some of the depression were opposed by the clearly positive GDP levels of the Euro region. According to a non -farm salary report in April, yields and stocks show that the Trump administration’s global trade war has not yet been felt in the US labor market.
On the corporate front, dozens of major global companies have reduced or rejected predictions from 1/4 income, and are uncertainty over tariffs. But this week’s overall atmosphere was positive, and investors continued to take over the day after implementation. One of the most important developments in the global market this week is from Tokyo, and the Bank of Japan has maintained interest rates as expected, but reduced growth prospects and lowered inflation predictions. The yen fell, but it was still in essence and flat. Therefore, the price was soaked in the individual stocks and assets. There is little proof that the US and after that are that the business uncertainty urges the company to dismiss workers or raise prices. Anyway.
The belief that President Donald Trump is getting out of his aggressive tariff threat, and there is a growing belief that more acceptable Washington is being closed in the trade transactions of the two countries several times. You can also cool down with China.
However, the Mark Dowding of RBC Bluebay Asset Management warns that the risk of growth and market is in the future and “adjustment of the cliff type” for the next few months.
“Wile E. Coyote seems to be similar to ROADRUNNER comics where the Wile E. Coyote continues to run after the land disappeared under his feet before the start of Gravity.”
As consumer emotions and inflation expectations increase, the stardflation disappears. In the case of the market, it suggests uneven water rather than ordinary sailing.
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The main market is moving this week
* The British FTSE 100 recorded the longest win of 15 consecutive daily profits since the launch of index in 1984.
* Friday Wall Street Rally has increased by 3%. DOW has been the best since December 2023, and S & P has won the longest since November 2024.
* Since the rapid increase in Friday after the April Employment Report, US bond yields will increase to 7 Basis points.
* Petroleum is 8%and Brent crude oil is closed with a four -year close of 61.17/BBL on Friday before OPEC+ meeting on Saturday.
* Nikkei 225 in Japan rises 3% in the US trade business optimism and weak yen. The index has risen for seven consecutive days since August -September 2023.
* Gold slides at 2.6%a week, further relieving at $ 3,500/OZ.
Chart of the week
US President Donald Trump regularly gained credit for social media about Wall Street’s boom. He had little vocals this week, and after his inauguration, he posted as follows this week. “This is not Trump, but Biden’s stock market.” The recent slide is “not related to tariffs.”
April 30 marks the first 100 days of Trump’s second term, and the next chart shows where they rank in history. Stocks have driven out some of these losses over the last two days, and if the rebound continues, it will be Trump’s stock market.
The best content I read this week is:
1. The US economic tail wind will ignore Trump and his tariffs.
2. Victory of Trump and Technology
3. SMOOT-HAWLEY Trade War
4. Trump tariff reveals weak aspects of service
5. Remarks of Kevin Warsh -Command Height: Central Bank of IMF Lectures hosted by G30
What can you move on Monday?
* Australian reaction to the general election on Saturday
* Indonesia GDP (Q1)
* US service ISM and PMI (April)
* US 3 -year Treasury auction
The expressed opinion is the author’s opinion. They do not reflect the view of Reuters News, which is dedicated to integrity, independence and prejudice, according to the principle of trust.
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