Transactions over the last few weeks: January 22 – February
February 11, 2024
Here is a screenshot of my journal showing all the trades I have made since my last Trade of the Week post (CAS is Calm After Storm and PB stands for Non-ADX 1,2,3,4 Pullback).
I highlighted two big winners: SMCI and IMNM. Both were based on Non-ADX 1,2,3,4 pullback signals. Another thing I called out was 4 consecutive losing 1R+ trades. (They weren’t accurately One after another… The logs are sorted by entry time, but exits were not consecutive.) Still, that stretch wasn’t fun. You can see the impact of that period between SMCI and IMNM in my stock curve. YTD returns fell from 16.5% to 10.2% before IMNM rose above 20%.
One of the comparisons to 2023 that I am happy with is the R distribution. In 2023, no transactions exceeded 4.5R, and in 2024 it has already reached 2R. A positive bonus is that no trades go beyond -1 to -1.5 bars! Losses should be kept small so they can be easily recovered.
One interesting comparison to 2023 is which settings work for me. Non-ADX 1,2,3,4 has risen to #1 and the “highest set average” is now the “MA bounce”. Surprisingly, Calm After Storm fell from start to finish! I’ve gone 3 for 3 in CAS trading so far, but it’s still early in the year and the sample size is small. I’d like to do this comparison again in a few months.
One of the lessons learned from the 2023 review is:
I have to try to hold out longer because I want to see much bigger ‘biggest winners’.
To date, the distribution is virtually identical to 2023. My “Winner Holding Time Average” actually went down by a day. This holding time issue has really been bugging me for the past few weeks thanks to SMCI trading.
If I had used a simple chandelier exit to get me out I would still be trading and my account would have increased 14.4% instead of the 5.5% profit I locked in. It’s a costly lesson, but one you won’t soon forget. I would definitely use some sort of trailing stop on future movers like this.
Deal of the Week
