Weekly Market Sentiment: Review #1 – Analysis and Forecasts – February 15, 2024
The Consumer Price Index was adjusted seasonally, but this did not have a significant impact on the overall picture. Core CPI is still in line with expectations at +0.3% month-on-month.
Revised Core Consumer Price Index Data
The market’s updated forecast for inflation is that inflation will exceed the 2% target in the near term before ending the year at:
PCE Inflation Forecast
S&P Global’s latest PMI showed some signs of improvement in the global economy during the first months of 2024, with 15 of 21 sectors posting their strongest gains since June last year.
S&P Global PMI, sector indicator
The Atlanta Fed’s wage index fell to +5.0% from +5.2% in January (the lowest in two years). Wage growth also slowed for those who stayed in the workforce (+4.9% to +4.7%) and those who switched jobs (+5.7% to +5.6%).
Atlanta Fed Wage Index
The number of U.S. corporate bankruptcy filings slowed in January compared to the previous month.
Number of corporate bankruptcy filings in the United States
CEO confidence in the first quarter increased from 46 to 53, marking the first optimistic reading (above 50) since the first quarter of 2022. At the same time, executives view political uncertainty as the biggest challenge for U.S. business this year.
CEO Trust Index
The biggest challenges for U.S. business through 2024, according to CEOs
Net outflows from gold ETFs were -$2.8 billion (~51 tons) in January, marking the eighth consecutive month of outflows. As a result, total AUM decreased to $210 billion (-2% MoM).
Inflows into gold ETFs
Commodity ETF Fund Flow by Category
There has been a significant shift in trading volume by retail traders towards small and mid-cap stocks in recent months.
The capitalization rate of shares arising from all transactions of the retailer.
