Will the price skyrocket to $100,000 as options expire?

As the cryptocurrency market continues to develop, recent developments suggest that Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, could be on the verge of a significant breakthrough.

Market intelligence firm Santiment has highlighted a new trend that could play a pivotal role in Bitcoin’s price trajectory: its declining correlation with traditional stock markets.

TLDR

• Bitcoin is showing signs of decoupling from traditional stock markets, which could set the stage for a significant price rise.
• After a brief decline following the release of the March CPI data, Bitcoin quickly rebounded to surpass the $70,000 mark.
• Bitcoin is currently consolidating below a major bull market breakout level that is 2x its 350-day moving average at $76,000.
• $1.5 billion in Bitcoin options and $800 million in Ethereum options are scheduled to expire on April 12, 2024, which could potentially cause near-term market volatility.

Brian Quinlivan, marketing director at Santiment, pointed out that Bitcoin appears to be progressing independently of stock market movements.

This trend is particularly important as historical data indicates that Bitcoin thrives during periods when its price movements are inconsistent with the broader stock market.

The difference between Bitcoin and the stock market became clear after the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data was released. While the data had a negative impact on stocks,

Bitcoin quickly rebounded from a brief decline to surpass $70,000. This resilience in the face of economic uncertainty suggests that Bitcoin may be maturing as an asset class and gaining the ability to weather market turmoil.

Bitcoin is currently consolidating just below a major bull market breakout level of $76,000, which is a multiple of 2x its 350-day moving average.

This level previously triggered a rapid rise to record highs in 2017 and 2020. If Bitcoin breaks this resistance, it could potentially trigger a price surge, with some analysts suggesting a target of up to $100,000.

However, the near-term price movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum may be affected by the upcoming expiration of a significant number of option contracts on April 12, 2024.

About $1.5 billion in Bitcoin options and $800 million in Ethereum options are scheduled to expire, which could increase volatility in the market. The maximum pain point, or the price at which the most option holders will experience financial loss, is $69,000 for Bitcoin and $3,425 for Ethereum.

April 12 Options Data
The 21,000 BTC options are set to expire with a put-call ratio of 0.62, Maxpain points of $69,000, and a notional value of $1.5 billion.
230,000 ETH options are scheduled to expire with a put-call ratio of 0.49, Maxpain points of $3,425, and a notional value of $800. pic.twitter.com/MjPStb9VW1

— Greeks.live (@GreeksLive) April 12, 2024

Despite the potential for near-term volatility, overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains optimistic.

Bitcoin’s detachment from traditional markets, combined with its ability to bounce back quickly from plunges and consolidate below major breakout levels, suggests the flagship cryptocurrency could deliver significant growth in the near future.