Do you remember the 3 signs of inflation you should watch for? | Mish’s Market Hours

As a follow-up to the daily article I wrote in early January, “Super cycles just don’t go away.” yesterday Every day on January 23rd It’s about one of three indicators that could prepare you for more inflation.

On January 5, sugar prices were still trading below 22 cents. Since then, SUGAR has risen another 15%. Quote from yesterday:

“The most notable one is the concept of a super cycle. Sugar is a good example, having risen 400% since 2020 before falling almost 40%, and is up 20% since reaching the current low of 20.00.

“Volatility is — yes — an inherent characteristic of supercycles.”

The second indicator I wrote about on January 5th was how silver was performing compared to gold. When silver begins to outperform gold, it is usually a sign of inflation. This is a good time to remind us that the CPI charts overlapping the 1970s and present times are incredibly well aligned. Has the CPI hit a new low?

Many people say inflation is over, but clearly they haven’t been paying enough attention. Maybe it will be that way now.

Silver has outperformed gold for two days in a row. The March futures chart shows that momentum could soon lead to a mean reversal. Moreover, $22.00 is a solid risk point with overhead resistance at $24.

The third indicator is DOLLAR, if there is a sharper downside from the price action within the current range.

The dollar is sandwiched between the 50 (blue) and 200 (green) moving averages. We can’t say that it’s collapsing or that it’s causing us much concern right now. However, momentum is decreasing and a move below the 50-MA and 200-MA of the Real Motion indicator could raise eyebrows, especially if the price fails 102.

PCE numbers come out this week. This is a lagging indicator, not a leading indicator. We can assume that number will decline, which should give the Fed room to discuss a March rate cut. So we can be patient about the current inflation situation, but we certainly cannot be complacent.

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Coming soon:

January 25: FACE with Dale Pinkert & Live Coaching & CNBC Asia

January 30th:breakfastsingapore radio

February 2: Benzinga Flea Market Show

February 5: money show life With Chuck Jaffe

February 21-23: Money Show in Las Vegas

weekly: Business-first AM, CMC market

• S&P 500 (Spy): 480 is now a pivotal area.
• Russell 2000 (IWM): It has 195 backbones and 190 supports.
• Dow (HE): Supports 375.
• NASDAQ (QQQ): Supports 408-409.
• Local Bank (KRE): You must have 50 keys in your hand.
• Semiconductor (SMH): Supports 184.
• Transportation (IYT): 262 now plays a pivotal role.
• Biotechnology (IBB): 135 is the key.
• Sleeve (XRT): Support held at 65 but still needs to recover above 70.00.

Misch Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education