January: Nasdaq has the best profit odds, but… | Mish’s Market Hours

“January provides a wealth of information to get the year off to a good start, both financially and emotionally.

“The data was specifically chosen to start in 2009 because it is the bottom of the most significant bear market before the 2022 bear market, and 2009 represents the beginning of an era of distinctly different monetary policy implementation by the Fed.

“There is one metric that clearly stands out: as you can see in the chart, QQQ was the best performer in terms of positive count percentage in January. However, a 60% win rate over the past 15 years is not that impressive. , the remaining three stock indices actually fell more often than they rose over the 15-year period. So one clear conclusion is that if you want to buy an index, QQQ has the highest odds in January.”

It was Geoff Bysshe, President of MarketGauge.com.

But right now we’re all about the Russell family. Grandpa Russell 2000 has had a stronger performance in January over the past five years.

January 2024 is off to a weak start so far, but the real test will be two-fold. First, whether IWM holds 180, and second, how IWM’s performance compares to the six-month highs and lows set in January.

This is the IWM daily chart. The horizontal green line is the line that resets this month for the new 6-month January calendar range. IWM had a golden cross (50-DMA above 200-DMA), which officially put the index in a bullish phase. With a peak reversal, we could see a 5-10% drop as usual. This sets the target between 195 and 185.

As of the second day, IWM is trading around 195. An important point to note is that leadership indicators It shows that IWM trading is on par with SPY. Given that SPY is generally not as strong as IWM in January, I would not like to see IWM underperform SPY.

Lastly, Real Motion Indicator It shows mean reversion and a golden cross between 50-DMA and 200-DMA.

It’s encouraging to know that IWM is testing and providing support. It is encouraging to see that IWM has statistically improved in January over the past five years. But we are being patient to see if Granny Retail XRT holds 70.00. We are also being patient with adding discretionary swing trading positions until the January 6-month calendar range is established.

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Tuesday, January 2nd on StockCharts TV final barMish (starting at 22:21) talks about small caps, retail, junk, and why all three will matter in 2024.

In this appearance on BNN Bloomberg, Mish talks about some particularly interesting charts and other places to invest in 2024.

In this appearance on Fox Business How to Make Money with Charles PayneMish talks to Cheryl Casone about Bitcoin’s volatility and why EVs may not be a good place to invest right now.

Recorded on December 28, Mish talks to Singapore Breakfast Bites about the themes to look for in 2024 and what to focus on, what to buy and what to avoid depending on economic and market conditions.

Mish, along with two other market experts, helps you prepare for 2024 with forecasts, picks and technical analysis from StockCharts TV. draw a chart ahead special.

Recorded on December 27, Mish provides a brief snippet of his overall macro predictions for 2024. Streets with JD Durkin.

Coming soon:

January 5: Daily briefing, Real Vision

January 22nd: Your Daily 5Stock Chart TV

January 24: Yahoo! Jae Won

weekly: Business-first AM, CMC market

• S&P 500 (Spy): 480 all-time high, 460 base support.
• Russell 2000 (IWM): There are 195 short-term supports and 180 major supports.
• Dow (HE): You should get 370.
• NASDAQ (QQQ): There is major support at 390 with resistance at 408.
• Local Bank (KRE): Support is 47 and resistance is 55.
• Semiconductor (SMH): Major support at 160 and resistance at 170 are now cleared.
• Transportation (IYT): You must have 250.
• Biotechnology (IBB): 130 Pivotal support.
• Sleeve (XRT): It tested the 70.00 level where the bulls should confirm the hold.

Misch Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education