South Carolina primary: Trump beats Haley, but here’s why she’s staying in the race
Donald Trump defeated rival Nikki Haley in South Carolina’s Republican presidential primary on Saturday and was expected to become the party’s presidential nominee in 2024.
The Associated Press said the race favored the former president as statewide polls closed at 7 p.m. ET. With a reported turnout of 33%, Trump received 59% of the vote and Haley 40%, according to AP data.
Haley is a former governor of South Carolina, but Trump was widely expected to win in her home state. As of Friday, Trump was ahead by 23 percentage points in state-focused polls, according to a moving average poll from RealClearPolitics.
Haley will likely face additional pressure to drop out of the 2024 Republican primary, but said Tuesday she will remain in the race at least until after the Super Tuesday primary on March 5. She spoke of Americans’ “dissatisfaction with their leaders.” “She is a candidate,” she said, “and I will fight as long as I have that opportunity because I still have a chance to restore the faith of my people.”
There are expectations among political analysts that she will follow through on her promises and not resign anytime soon.
Haley “is likely to remain in the race regardless of the outcome in South Carolina,” as she hopes to remain the Republican Party’s main alternative to Trump in 2024 or become the Republican front-runner in 2028, said Stephen Farnsworth, a political science professor. at the University of Mary Washington in Virginia ahead of Trump’s victory in the Palmetto State.
Farnsworth told MarketWatch that the 77-year-old Trump could face a health crisis or be convicted in one of his pending criminal cases, which would cause Republicans “to have doubts about nominating him” and prefer an alternative this year. We will, Farnsworth told MarketWatch. And as for 2028, the Mary Washington expert noted that the Republican Party has a “history of coming in second for subsequent candidates,” as they tapped George HW Bush in 1988, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012.
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Jeff Gulati, a political science professor at Bentley University in Massachusetts, also believes that Haley, 52, is either expecting Trump’s sudden defeat or is looking ahead to 2028.
“One of the advantages of going state by state, even if she loses by a significant margin, is that she’s building an organization, which will allow her to get ahead in 2028,” Gulati said.
“And Trump is 77 years old. “He’s got quite a bit of legal trouble right now, so I think there’s some hope that something might happen to make him drop out and he’ll be the only one left.”
To be sure, Haley continues to look like a likely candidate for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, and many analysts are already preparing for a rematch between Trump and President Joe Biden in the November general election.
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In recent days, Haley’s chances of becoming the Republican nominee were only about 6 percent, according to betting markets tracked by RealClearPolitics.
Gulati said the 6% chance was “about right.” Because “it involves Donald Trump dropping out of the race, either voluntarily or involuntarily.”
Farnsworth, on the other hand, said 6% is optimistic and 1% may be more accurate.
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