Trump remains favored by cryptocurrency bettors to win the election despite guilty verdict

News of Donald Trump’s conviction in a New York court on Thursday made headlines around the world, but for cryptocurrency holders betting on the outcome of the US presidential election in November, nothing fundamentally changed.

More than $142 million is being invested in “Who Wins the 2024 Presidential Election”, the top political bet on cryptocurrency betting site Polymarket. Notably, this bet is not officially available to US residents. For more than a week, Trump’s odds of winning have remained stable at around 56%, reflecting many mainstream political polls.

After the verdict was announced, live odds hovered between 53% and 55% at the time of this writing.

The Polymarket site had a number of separate betting markets set up for testing. Just before the jury returned a blanket guilty verdict against the former president, users overall saw a 77% chance of conviction. However, this particular bet only involves $204,000, with one more hour remaining in contention as of this writing.

More than four times that amount, $800,000, depends on whether Trump goes to prison before Election Day, a chance that has increased slightly since the verdict was announced. From a stable 14% chance on Thursday morning, it rose up to 20% after the news broke, but the odds are now stable at 17%.

Polymarket’s collective shrug contrasted slightly with the reaction on Crypto Twitter, with some declaring Trump’s verdict a call for revolution.

“Buy a gun. Buy Bitcoin. Ryan Selkis, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency research firm Messari, recommended moving to risk status. “The U.S. Constitution has collapsed.”

Messari, who is currently pinned on the tweet, declared that “Donald Trump is building a cryptocurrency army,” and added, “If you care about cryptocurrency and the Republic, donate your cryptocurrency to the Trump campaign.”

Adam Cochrane, a partner at Cinneamhain Ventures, wrote on Twitter that the ruling proves Trump is “a criminal con man who says he’s anti-establishment to fool you.”

As for the ruling’s impact on political meme coins, tokens supporting Trump have been in the news. It was confusing to some, as many believe a conviction would only help Trump’s chances.

As things calm down, this may become conventional wisdom. The $TRUMP token has bounced over the past hour and the brief gains seen in $BODEN have evaporated.

Erik Voorhees, founder of ShapeShift and Venice AI, said he was not surprised and that the trial was focused on “maximum condemnation” for relatively minor crimes.

Edited by Ryan Ozawa.