Will gold continue to rise this week? – Analysis and Forecast – February 26, 2024
The latest weekly gold survey showed mixed opinions among investors and analysts. Main Street is generally holding steady with a balanced bullish stance, with analysts’ bullish forecasts for this week showing a clear majority ahead.
Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management, is among those expecting gold growth to rise higher this week.
James Stanley, chief market strategist at Forex.com, shares Day’s opinion. In his view, the door was opened for a stronger dollar after the Consumer Price Index report. However, considering the reaction to Austin Goolsbee’s statement that he was not happy with just one inflation indicator, it is likely that it will be difficult for the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance for long. This is positive for gold.
Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, takes a contrary view on the Fed’s reaction to positive economic data.
Bob Haberkorn, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, believes Fed speakers will remain consistent in their statements. It would be very beneficial for gold bulls if any of them hint at a rate cut anytime soon. Considering current interest rates, the fact that gold is maintaining the $2,000 level is quite impressive. This will only highlight the fear that currently exists in the world and spark strong demand for gold assets.
Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart.com, believes technicals will continue to remain strong this week. Initial resistance could be the recent high at $2,045.00, with further growth expected.
According to Marc Chandler, managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex, the dollar is expected to continue to fall after the interest rate adjustment ends. In his opinion, spot gold could trade for around $2,050 this week.
Eleven analysts participated in the latest gold survey. Eight analysts (73%) expect prices to rise this week, while only one analyst (9%) forecast a decline, while 18% (18%) expect prices to move sideways.
In an online survey that garnered 203 votes, Main Street maintained the same basic distribution of opinions as last week. 89 individual investors, or 43%, expect a price increase. Another 52 people (26%) expected a decline, and 63 people (31%) remained neutral.
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said gold’s movements had more to do with current risk aversion than people’s fears. He points out that taking profits in risky markets is beneficial for gold. Despite the importance of this week’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, markets have largely shown little reaction to it. PCE is generally considered an additional confirmation.
Thursday’s PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s main inflation indicator, will be the main publication this week. In addition to inflation data, markets will also be watching new home sales on Monday, durable goods orders and consumer confidence on Tuesday. On Wednesday, attention will turn to the preliminary US fourth quarter GDP report. Home sales data is released on Thursday, and ISM Manufacturing PMI is released on Friday. All of these news events will add volatility to the market.
